Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 7小时前75

Anthropic’s Pentagon fight was less about access to Claude than control over how the military can use frontier AI. New WSJ-reported court documents show months of emails between Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and Pentagon undersecretary Emil Michael over guardrails for AI-powered weapons and domestic surveillance. Anthropic wanted bans on fully autonomous weapons and certain surveillance uses. The Pentagon pushed for Claude to be available across all lawful national-security use cases. Michael reportedly said he did not want to "force anything unnatural" if the sides were too far apart. The Pentagon later labeled Anthropic a supply-chain risk, effectively blocking partners from using its models in Defense Department work. A judge has paused parts of that move, but the government is appealing. Michael says two-thirds of Pentagon operations using Anthropic have already switched to other AI tools.

译WSJ法庭文件显示，Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei与五角大楼副部长Emil Michael数月邮件往来，核心分歧在于Claude的军事用途护栏。Anthropic要求禁止全自主武器及某些监控用途，五角大楼则希望Claude可用于所有合法国家安全场景。Michael称若分歧太大不愿“强行推动”。随后五角大楼将Anthropic列为供应链风险，阻止合作伙伴在国防部项目中使用其模型。法官暂停部分措施，政府正在上诉。Michael称原先采用Anthropic的操作中已有三分之二切换至其他AI工具。

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 7小时前70

Anthropic’s Pentagon fight was less about access to Claude than control over how the military can use frontier AI. New WSJ-reported court documents show months of emails between Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and Pentagon undersecretary Emil Michael over guardrails for AI-powered weapons and domestic surveillance. Anthropic wanted bans on fully autonomous weapons and certain surveillance uses. The Pentagon pushed for Claude to be available across all lawful national-security use cases. Michael reportedly said he did not want to "force anything unnatural" if the sides were too far apart. The Pentagon later labeled Anthropic a supply-chain risk, effectively blocking partners from using its models in Defense Department work. A judge has paused parts of that move, but the government is appealing. Michael says two-thirds of Pentagon operations using Anthropic have already switched to other AI tools.

译WSJ报道的法院文件显示，Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei与五角大楼副部长Emil Michael就AI武器和监控护栏进行了数月邮件往来。Anthropic要求禁止全自主武器及特定监控用途，五角大楼则希望Claude可用于所有合法国家安全场景。Michael称不愿“强行扭曲”。五角大楼随后将Anthropic列为供应链风险，阻碍其模型用于国防部工作。法官暂停部分措施，但政府已上诉。Michael表示，使用Anthropic的五角大楼业务中已有三分之二转向其他AI工具。

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · 18小时前59

FT: OpenAI has proposed giving Washington 5% of its $852B business to ease AI pressure. The idea borrows from Alaska’s oil fund, which shares resource wealth with residents. Here, the resource is not oil, but future income from advanced AI systems. OpenAI also wants other major AI companies to give similar 5% stakes. Anthropic, Google, Meta, and others have not agreed to join this plan. No deal exists yet. The mechanism would likely be: OpenAI gives shares to a government-linked fund, that fund holds them, and future IPO gains or dividends support public payouts. The hard part is legality. The legal route is unclear, and a deal may need Congress, especially if the government creates a formal public fund. The Intel deal made this idea less theoretical after taxpayers received a 9.9% stake. OpenAI has already proposed a public wealth fund giving citizens AI-linked financial upside. Shareholders matter a lot here. OpenAI Foundation owns 26%, Microsoft owns about 27%, and employees plus other investors own 47%. A new 5% stake could dilute everyone unless the shares come from an existing holder. So OpenAI’s board, Foundation, Microsoft, major investors, and maybe regulators would need to accept the structure. The cleanest path would be non-voting shares placed in a public wealth fund, so the government gets upside but not control. The messiest path would be voting shares, because then Washington becomes both regulator and part-owner.

译OpenAI 提议向美国政府提供其 8520 亿美元商业价值的 5% 股份，借鉴阿拉斯加石油基金模式，让公众分享 AI 未来收入。Anthropic、Google、Meta 等未同意加入。法律路径不明确，可能需要国会批准。现有股东中，OpenAI 基金会持股 26%，微软约 27%，员工及其他投资者共 47%。新股份可能稀释所有人。最干净方案是放入政府关联基金的非投票权股份，赋予收益但不控制权；投票权方案会导致政府既监管又持股。

DogeDesigner@cb_doge · 19小时前55

BREAKING: OpenAI has reportedly discussed giving the U.S. government a 5% ownership stake. Sam Altman says this would help ensure Americans share in the success of AI. He has also proposed that other leading U.S. AI companies consider doing the same, as per The Financial Times.

译据报，OpenAI 已讨论给予美国政府 5% 的所有权股份。 Sam Altman 表示，这将有助于确保美国人分享 AI 的成功。他还提议其他领先的美国 AI 公司考虑同样的做法，据《金融时报》报道。

SemiAnalysis@SemiAnalysis_ · 20小时前74

The return of Fable 5. The lobotomized Mythos — offline since June 12th under a US export-control directive — is live again as of today. First frontier model taken down and brought back by policy. Won't be the last.

译The return of Fable 5. 被削弱的 Mythos——自 6 月 12 日起在美国出口管制指令下离线——今天重新上线。 首个因政策被下架又恢复的 frontier 模型，但不会是最后一个。

Ethan Mollick@emollick · 1天前27

It would be good to have an official government statement about the risks they saw in Fable, how they are viewing defensive preparations in light of coming open weights Mythos-class models, & whether the worries are state actors, independent hackers, etc It’s important to know

译如果能有一份官方政府声明，说明他们在Fable中看到的风险、他们如何看待针对即将到来的开源Mythos级模型的防御准备，以及担忧的是国家行为体还是独立黑客等，那会很好。 了解这一点很重要

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · 1天前68

U.S. chip restrictions helped push China to build and spread open AI models. The authors tested this by looking at policy documents, open model releases, GitHub activity, research papers, company-linked papers, and U.S. patents. They found that after major U.S. export controls, Chinese developers increased activity around open LLM projects much more than U.S. developers did. ---- Link – arxiv. org/abs/2606.15999 Title: "U.S.Policies Unintentionally Accelerated China's Open AI Ecosystems"

译一项研究通过分析政策文件、开源模型发布、GitHub活跃度、论文及美国专利发现：美国加强出口管制后，中国开发者在开源大语言模型项目上的活跃度远超美国开发者，美国政策非但未遏制中国AI发展，反而加速了其开源生态建设。Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas 补充称，中国建设数据中心速度更快，电力、许可、人力、劳动力、专业知识均不构成障碍。

宝玉@dotey · 1天前78

Fable 5 从 7 月 1 日起恢复上线。Pro、Max、Team 和部分 Enterprise 用户在 7 月 7 日之前，每周使用量限额的 50% 可以用 Fable 5；7 月 7 日之后改为按使用积分（usage credits）计费。标准 Enterprise 席位没有免费额度，全部按积分计费。 AWS、Google Cloud 和 Microsoft Foundry 上的接入还在恢复中。Mythos 5 目前仅对经美国政府批准的美国机构开放。

译Anthropic 的 Claude Fable 5 于 7 月 1 日恢复上线。Pro、Max、Team 及部分 Enterprise 用户在 7 月 7 日前每周可用限额的 50%，之后改为按使用积分计费；标准 Enterprise 席位无免费额度，全部按积分计费。AWS、Google Cloud、Microsoft Foundry 接入仍在恢复中。Mythos 5 仅对经美国政府批准的美国机构开放。Anthropic 称 Fable 5 将配备新分类器以阻止网络安全任务，短期常规任务回退至 Opus 4.8。公司正与 Amazon、Microsoft、Google 等 Glasswing 合作伙伴起草共识框架，用于评估 AI 越狱严重性及响应机制，并扩大与美国政府在模型预发布评估、越狱信息共享方面的合作。

Berryxia.AI@berryxia · 1天前65

Fable 5 要回归 了？ A社的意思已经获批再次开放……

译Fable 5 要回归了？ A社（Anthropic）已获通知，美国商务部解除对 Claude Fable 5 及 Mythos 5 的出口管制。 明日将恢复访问，后续会分享更新。感谢用户的耐心等待，也感谢所有参与模型重新部署的各方。

Thariq@trq212 · 1天前61

excited to get Fable back in your hands!

译Anthropic 宣布美国商务部已解除对 Claude Fable 5 和 Mythos 5 的出口管制，明天起恢复访问，团队正筹备重新部署。Thariq 表示很高兴看到 Fable 回归。

歸藏(guizang.ai)@op7418 · 1天前63

Fable 5 终于要恢复了，不知道是面向美国人还是全球的

AYi@AYi_AInotes · 1天前58

美国商务部已解除对 Claude Fable 5 和 Mythos 5 的出口管制， 明天恢复访问，我以为这辈子再也用不到了😭

宝玉@dotey · 1天前65

Anthropic 的 Fable 5 和 Mythos 5 终于解禁了。 美国商务部长 Howard Lutnick 周二致信 Anthropic，确认撤销此前对这两款模型的出口管制。Anthropic 随即宣布将从周三开始恢复用户访问。 解禁是有条件的。根据 Lutnick 的信，Anthropic 需要主动检测和处理模型的安全风险，与政府合作制定未来的发布流程，并上报发现的任何恶意使用行为。双方还在讨论建立一套标准化的技术评估体系，用于评估未来模型的风险等级。 这件事的影响不止于 Anthropic 一家。上周，OpenAI 也在白宫要求下，将新发布的 GPT-5.6 系列（包括旗舰模型 Sol）限制在一小批政府认可的合作伙伴中。OpenAI 虽然照做了，但明确表态这种政府审批模式不应成为长期常态，“它让最好的工具远离了需要它们的用户、开发者、企业和网络防御者”。 这场管制还引发了一个意外的竞争后果：在美国限制自家公司最强模型部署的同时，中国的开源模型正在快速追赶，多位科技高管和投资者担忧，管制等于白白送给对手宝贵的追赶时间。 前白宫 AI 顾问、即将加入 OpenAI 的 Dean Ball 说得更直接：Trump 的行政令实际上创造了一个事实上的强制许可制度，而政府连清晰的安全标准都没定义出来。一个没有标准的许可制度，能让每一次模型发布都变成一场即兴谈判。

译美国商务部撤销对Anthropic旗下Claude Fable 5和Mythos 5的出口管制，Anthropic将于周三恢复用户访问。解禁附有条件：需主动检测安全风险、配合政府制定发布流程、上报恶意使用，双方正讨论标准化评估体系。此前OpenAI也按要求限制GPT-5.6系列，但反对该审批模式。前白宫AI顾问Dean Ball批评Trump行政令造成事实强制许可制度，且无清晰安全标准。

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · 1天前76

The letter from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about lifting the export control restriction on Anthropic Fable 5.

译美国商务部长 Howard Lutnick 致信解除对 Anthropic Fable 5 的出口管制限制。Claude Fable 5 和 Mythos 5 即将回归。🔥

小互@xiaohu · 1天前61

好消息： 美国商务部已解除对 Claude Fable 5 和 Mythos 5 的出口管制。 明天将恢复其访问…

Yuchen Jin@Yuchenj_UW · 1天前62

WE ARE SO BACK! See you Fable 5 and Mythos 5 tomorrow.

译美国商务部已解除对Claude Fable 5和Mythos 5的出口管制，明天将恢复访问。感谢用户耐心及各方协助重新部署。我们回来了！明天见。

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · 1天前56

FINALLY.. Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 are coming back. 🔥

译美国商务部已解除对 Claude Fable 5 和 Mythos 5 的出口管制，Anthropic 将于明天恢复访问，并感谢用户的耐心与合作。主推文感叹它们终于回来了。

Anthropic@AnthropicAI · 1天前74

We’ve received notice that the Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5. We'll begin restoring access tomorrow, and will share an update soon. We’re grateful to our users for their patience, and to everyone who worked with us on redeploying the models.

译我们已收到通知，商务部已解除对 Claude Fable 5 和 Mythos 5 的出口管制。 我们明天将开始恢复访问，并很快分享最新进展。 我们感谢用户的耐心，也感谢所有与我们合作重新部署模型的各位。

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · 2天前67

The US Department of Commerce might finally take the Fable restrictions off the table tonight. 🤯

译美国商务部可能终于要在今晚取消对Fable的限制了。🤯

🚨 AI News | TestingCatalog@testingcatalog · 2天前72

ANTHROPIC 🔥: Export Controls might be lifted from Claude Fable 5 as early as today, according to Politico. Lifted for US users? Monitoring 👀

译Claude Fable 5出口

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 2天前50

Politico says that Fable 5 is coming back tonight! So I was right after all with my guess that Sonnet 5 and Fable 5 would be released at the same time. Politico is one of the most respected publications, so this is a credible source. Get ready, friends: it’s time to get Fable back!

译Politico说Fable 5今晚回归！ 看来我猜对了，Sonnet 5和Fable 5会同时发布。Politico是最受尊重的媒体之一，因此这个消息来源可信。 准备好吧，朋友们：是时候让Fable回来了！

Yuchen Jin@Yuchenj_UW · 2天前66

Meituan, basically China’s DoorDash, trained a 1.6T parameter LLM on 50K Chinese chips. It reminds me of Jensen Huang’s point on the Dwarkesh podcast: export controls on Nvidia GPUs won’t stop China. They’ll just accelerate the development of AI that runs on Chinese chips.

译美团，基本上就是中国版DoorDash，在5万块国产芯片上训练了一个1.6T参数的大语言模型。 这让我想起了黄仁勋在Dwarkesh播客上的观点：对英伟达GPU的出口管制不会阻止中国。它们只会加速运行在国产芯片上的AI的发展。

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · 2天前52

Aravind Srinivas just explained why China’s open-source AI may become more powerful than ever. And why Anthropic has lobbied very hard for export control. "the only reason why there is even a 12-month gap between open source and frontier models is export controls. But there is a chance that, because of that, they now get really good at the physical layer. One advantage they (China) have is that they can actually build data centers a lot faster. Power is not a problem. Permits are not a problem. People are not a problem. Labor is not a problem. Expertise is not a problem. And so, by forcing them to go out there and build all this, you are converting them into a far more potent competitor." --- From "20VC with Harry Stebbings" YouTube channel (@HarryStebbings ), link in comment

译Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas 解释，中国开源AI可能变得更强——出口管制导致开源模型与前沿模型之间存在12个月的差距，但中国在物理层（数据中心建设）拥有显著优势：更快建设速度、电力与许可无障碍、充足劳动力与专长。Anthropic 为此大力游说出口管制，然而这反而可能迫使中国成为更具竞争力的对手。

SemiAnalysis@SemiAnalysis_ · 2天前22

What would the current state of AI be if non-competes were allowed in California?

译如果加州允许非竞争协议，当前AI的状态会是什么？

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 3天前64

Marc Andreessen will join the Defense Policy Board at Pete Hegseth’s request. This is not just another advisory appointment. It proofs something much larger: Silicon Valley, AI, defense tech, and U.S. national security strategy are moving even closer together. Andreessen is not simply "close to AI." He represents the broader American Dynamism wing of tech: the view that software, chips, autonomy, AI, and industrial capacity are now core instruments of national power. His appointment underscores how seriously the United States now treats AI as a strategic technology, not just for productivity or consumer apps, but for defense, deterrence, procurement, intelligence, and geopolitical competition. It also puts Anthropic's earlier clash with the Department of Defense in a sharper light. Anthropic drew red lines around certain military uses of its models (because their ethics and moral commitments turned them into a supply-chain risk). But Washington’s direction of travel is becoming increasingly clear: frontier AI is being absorbed into the national-security state. And companies that resist that logic may find themselves increasingly isolated from the center of U.S. strategic power.

译国防部长 Pete Hegseth 任命 Marc Andreessen 加入国防政策委员会。该任命标志硅谷、AI、国防科技与国家安全战略加速融合。Andreessen 代表“美国动力”派，视软件、芯片、自主系统、AI 和工业能力为国家权力核心。此举凸显美国将 AI 视为战略技术，用于国防、威慑、采购、情报和地缘竞争。同时反衬 Anthropic 此前对军方使用其模型划设红线的立场——前沿 AI 正被纳入国家安全体系，拒绝配合的公司可能被美国战略核心日益孤立。

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 3天前56

The worst-case scenario for the United States is becoming increasingly realistic, and I will briefly explain why. @quxiaoyin raised many valid points, and I agree with her. First of all: -China certainly does not place such strong emphasis on open source because it cares so deeply about humanism, but because it is a strategy to attract many users, gain market share, put pressure on US models, and also because the models are increasingly being trained on Huawei hardware (think of DeepSeek 4), allowing China to host the entire stack domestically. -But the underlying logic is far more important: The United States is still building too few data centers to meet future demand. @ChrisGillett wrote an outstanding analysis on this, which I shared a week ago. In short, based on SemiAnalysis data, demand is greater than what is currently being built in terms of data centers. -Even more importantly, however, the United States lacks sufficient energy and grid capacity. This is a problem that will become much more severe in the near future. China, by contrast, is addressing the issue through a massive expansion of its energy supply. Solar capacity: in 2025 alone, China installed as much solar capacity as the United States did in 10 to 15 years. China is also building 36 nuclear power plants, significantly more than the United States, and is installing them faster. -In addition, China is managing to become more independent through Huawei chips, even though the country still lags far behind NVIDIA. But here, China is betting on quantity rather than quality. In short: China is a real threat in the AI race, and the situation for the United States is becoming increasingly precarious. This is also the main reason why China is to be kept away from SOTA LLMs at all costs, so as not to jeopardize the lead under any circumstances.

译Kim引用quxiaoyin观点指出，中国开源AI并非出于人文主义，而是抢占市场份额、压制美国模型的战略。模型在华为芯片（如DeepSeek 4）上训练和推理优化，使中国掌握模型层与芯片层。同时美国数据中心建设不足，能源和电网容量严重短缺；中国2025年一年新增太阳能装机量相当于美国10–15年，在建36座核电站。华为芯片虽仍落后NVIDIA，但以量取胜。出口管制无法解决问题，美国应投资开源模型、推动中国使用NVIDIA并加速核电建设。

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · 3天前61

Bloomberg chart showing just how much RAM datacenter GPUs take. Nvidia’s H100 carried 80GB of GPU memory, H200 moved to 141GB, Blackwell moved to 192GB class parts, and GB300 Blackwell Ultra reaches 288GB of HBM3e per GPU. A 72-GPU rack multiplies that into a memory wall big enough to change supplier behavior, because AI servers pay premium prices for capacity and bandwidth that make everyday device memory less attractive

译Bloomberg图表显示，Nvidia H100至GB300 Blackwell Ultra的GPU显存从80GB增至288GB HBM3e。72-GPU机架形成巨大内存墙，AI服务器高价争抢容量和带宽，挤压消费端DRAM产能。FT报道，苹果已请求美国批准从被列入Pentagon中国军事公司名单的CXMT采购DRAM，以应对成本压力。内存涨价已迫使MacBook和iPad涨价，苹果市值蒸发2630亿美元。

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · 4天前58

Central bankers now fear the AI gold rush could seed the next major financial shock. Bank for International Settlements (BIS) just issued one of its sharpest warnings yet about debt building behind the AI boom. The danger is not AI itself; the danger is building a leveraged supply chain around revenue that has not yet proved durable. The risk is that if AI demand disappoints, data-center spending could slow, borrowers could struggle to repay, and stress could spread from tech into credit markets. AI demand pushed hyperscalers to spend heavily on chips, data centers, and power capacity, and that spending supported growth, trade, and easy financial conditions while equity investors priced in years of high earnings growth. Debt changed the shape of the boom because hyperscaler bond issuance topped $100B in 2025, while off-balance sheet vehicles shifted data-center obligations toward private credit funds, insurers, and other non-bank lenders. Circular financing adds another weak point because chipmakers, hyperscalers, AI labs, and compute providers can fund each other while also booking future sales from each other, which can make real demand harder to read. A capex slowdown could hit suppliers first, then credit markets, then households, because US stocks make up about 64% of the MSCI Global index and household equity exposure is higher than in past cycles. Private credit raises the systemic risk because direct lenders have quadrupled AI and IT exposure in 5 years to about 15% of portfolios, while some retail-facing funds already face redemption pressure. AI can still deliver real productivity gains, but the financing stack now assumes that delivery arrives fast enough to support huge fixed costs.

译BIS警告，AI热潮背后积累的债务可能引发金融冲击。风险不在AI本身，而在于围绕尚未被证明持久性的收入构建的杠杆化供应链。若AI需求不及预期，数据中心支出放缓，借款者难偿还，压力从科技蔓延至信贷市场。超大规模企业2025年债券发行超1000亿美元；表外工具将数据中心债务转移至私人信贷基金和保险机构；私人信贷基金5年内AI/IT敞口翻两番至约15%，部分零售基金已面临赎回压力。美国股市占MSCI全球指数约64%，家庭股票敞口高于以往周期。芯片商、超大规模企业间循环融资使真实需求更难判断。BIS认为AI仍可提升生产力，但融资结构假定这些提升能快速实现以支撑巨额固定成本。

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 4天前42

The open internet was the training ground for modern AI. Billions of texts, forum posts, code repositories, Wikipedia articles, scientific papers, blogs, and discussions: a global knowledge space built collectively over decades. This free knowledge has now been transferred into artificial intelligence. And that is precisely why AI must not disappear entirely behind proprietary walls. Closed source may currently be leading when it comes to the most powerful models. But if access to intelligence is increasingly regulated, restricted, and controlled geopolitically, then open source is no longer just a technical ideal. It is a question of power. The open internet made AI possible. Now open source must ensure that AI remains open.

译强调开放互联网是现代AI的训练基础——数十亿文本、论坛帖子、代码仓库、百科、论文、博客等共同构建了全球知识空间，这一自由知识已被转移进AI。因此AI不应完全消失于专有壁垒之后。闭源模型当前虽在最强模型上领先，但如果地缘政治上对智能的获取日益受限制、管控和控制，开源就不再只是技术理想，而是权力问题。针对“开源仍无法真正查看模型内部，算不上真‘自由’”的质疑，作者表示观看视频后反而更坚信开源的立场。

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · 4天前73

CEO of Box, @levie on AI access as the new blunt instrument in geopolitics. “Imagine AI being used as a lever in trade negotiations. That could very much threaten your economic & national security...maybe this is going to be treated like kind of weapon"

译奥地利要求欧盟为Anthropic建立欧洲运营基地，称美国AI出口管制已使前沿模型访问变成地缘政治依赖。方案设想让Anthropic在欧盟境内运营部分业务，适用欧盟法律、客户和基础设施。但即使Anthropic在欧洲设服务器和子公司，美国出口管制仍可因母公司、核心技术、员工和模型治理归美国所有而继续约束。奥地利未给出明确实施机制，核心诉求是欧洲不应完全依赖一家最强模型可能被美国政府命令切断的美国公司。

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · 4天前69

Reuters: Austria is asking the EU to give Anthropic a European base because US AI controls have turned frontier-model access into a geopolitical dependency. It is asking Brussels to explore a political and legal package that could make Anthropic run part of its business from inside the EU, with EU law, EU customers, EU capital, and EU-based infrastructure involved. The hard part is that hosting Anthropic in Europe would not automatically move US ownership, export law, training infrastructure, or model governance outside Washington’s reach. Austria gave no clear mechanism for how this would actually happen. The catch is huge: even if Anthropic had servers and a subsidiary in Europe, US export-control law could still bind Anthropic because the parent company, core technology, employees, and model governance remain American. Austria’s real claim is that Europe should not depend fully on a US company whose strongest models can be cut off by a US government order affecting foreign users. --- reuters .com/business/austria-lobbies-eu-host-anthropic-ai-after-us-curbs-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-06-28/

译奥地利向欧盟提议，通过政治和法律方案让Anthropic在欧盟内部运营部分业务，涉及欧盟法律、客户、资本和基础设施。此举旨在避免美国AI出口管制导致欧洲对前沿模型访问形成地缘依赖。但挑战在于：即便Anthropic在欧洲设立子公司和服务器，其母公司、核心技术、雇员及模型治理仍受美国出口法约束，美国政府仍可切断对海外用户的最强模型访问。奥地利未给出明确实施机制。

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 4天前23

Historic indeed. A historic failure.

译历史性，没错。一次历史性的失败。 （注：引用推文内容——欧盟成为全球首个为AI使用制定明确规则的大洲。#AIAct 不仅是规则手册，更是欧盟初创企业和研究人员引领全球AI竞赛的发射台。最好的还在后头！👍）

Nathan Lambert@natolambert · 4天前59

This is real and a horrible consequence of vibe regulation of frontier models.

译这是真实的，也是前沿模型氛围监管的可怕后果。

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 4天前72

Dario Amodei’s "fearmongering" was not the reason Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 were embargoed. That is a mistaken assumption. I fully agree with @deredleritt3r here, and he has provided a good analysis. I would like to briefly explain why I believe he is right, and why it is not Dario Amodei’s fault, nor the result of so-called fear-mongering, that the models are now being banned. There are certainly things one can criticize Dario Amodei for, and things that went badly or were handled incorrectly, for example the way he dealt with the U.S. authorities (Remember February, when Anthropic refused to cooperate with the U.S. Department of Defense). Based on all the reports that circulated, the response to the U.S. government’s demand to revise the models and security risks was insufficient. It also appears that phone availability was poor. In a situation involving national security and a technology that could endanger the security and sovereignty of the nation, that is obviously not a manageable state of affairs, and it is certainly something that can be criticized. But it is absurd to believe that the U.S. government, which has a staff of advisers and cybersecurity experts, an intelligence service that deals with this technology (NSA), and scientists of its own, would simply decide to ban an entire technology and thereby impose enormous obstacles on the stock market and investors (!) merely because a CEO was supposedly engaging in fear-mongering. The U.S. government is surely aware of the damage it is causing with the embargo, and factors that into its calculation when weighing it against national security. That is the reason. Under no circumstances can I imagine that the U.S. government would simply accept mere statements and use them as the basis for concluding that a CEO is afraid, then make such serious and financially consequential decisions without examining the matter itself. Anyone who believes that underestimates the strength, reach, and intelligence of the government of the world’s largest nation. Again, the way Anthropic dealt with the U.S. government is certainly open to criticism, based on everything we were able to read afterward. But to believe that fear-mongering alone is enough to prompt the U.S. government not only to halt the technology (in the race against China for investment, R&D, and the entire future of their nations, mind you), but also to impose requirements on investment that are so enormous that even the Manhattan Project seems small by comparison, is an assumption that is almost certainly wrong. The reason for the embargo is most likely that there are concerns that this technology could fall into the hands of the biggest competitor, namely China. There is concern that China could manage to use this technology for its own purposes, for example through distillation or other means. Under no circumstances do they want, for example, Fable 5 to be used to launch cyberattacks against the United States, uncover secrets, or cause major damage. That is the reason, and these concerns are real, not made up. I think Fable 5 is truly a powerful technology that the US government is now trying to regulate because it fears that, in the wrong hands, it could cause massive harm. That does not mean I support this, because I am concerned that public access may in fact be completely blocked in the future. I think open source is the solution, but I assume this is the correct explanation, rather than the assumption that Daryl Amodei is merely fearmongering.

译Kim认为美国政府基于自身安全评估（担忧模型被中国通过蒸馏获取）而非CEO言论决定禁运Fable 5和GPT-5.6。她批评Anthropic沟通失误（拒配合国防部、电话不畅通），并赞同模型被禁源于其真实破坏性能力，Anthropic应主动报告风险而非让Amazon先行披露。

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 4天前51

US officials are now framing the AI race with China as a national-security contest where even a tiny lead can change the outcome. At a Hudson Institute event, House Foreign Affairs Chairman Brian Mast called America the “superhero” and China the “supervillain” in global AI competition. Senator Jim Banks said the race is economic, military and moral, and warned the US cannot afford to lose to its “biggest adversary.” Bessent put it bluntly this week: China is willing to discuss AI because the US is still ahead. The fear in Washington is that “ahead” is becoming a narrower lead. And I am very, very sure that the Fable 5 ban needs to be understood against this backdrop.

译美国官员将与中国的人工智能竞赛定位为国家安全对抗，称微小领先也能改变结果。众议院外交委员会主席Brian Mast在哈德逊研究所活动上称美国是“超级英雄”、中国是“超级反派”。参议员Jim Banks表示这场竞赛涉及经济、军事和道德层面，警告美国不能输给“最大对手”。财长Bessent直言，中国愿意讨论AI是因为美国目前仍领先，但华盛顿担忧这一优势正不断缩小。作者认为，“Fable 5禁令”必须在此背景下理解。

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · 5天前71

Gallup found that 71% of Americans oppose building local AI data centers. Women (55%) are also more likely than men (43%) to register strong opposition to data center construction. There are no meaningful differences in total opposition by age, race, education, income or urbanicity. Opposition is slightly lower among those living in the West (63%) and East (68%) than in the Midwest (76%) and South (75%). The opposition is not mainly abstract fear of AI, because 50% of opponents mention resource strain, including 18% water use and 18% electricity demand. Local residents are reacting to AI as a land, grid, water, noise, traffic, and bill-pressure issue. Supporters see the other side of the bargain, with 66% citing local economic benefits and 55% naming jobs. The political risk is unusually broad because majorities of Democrats, independents, and Republicans all oppose local construction, even though Democrats show the strongest opposition at 56% strongly opposed.

译Gallup民调显示，71%美国人反对在本地建设AI数据中心，女性（55%）强烈反对比例高于男性（43%）。反对主因并非恐惧AI，而是资源压力（50%反对者提及，其中水、电各占18%）；支持者则看重经济（66%）和就业（55%）。政治风险广泛，多数民主党、独立派、共和党均反对，民主党最强烈（56%强烈反对）。自2023年以来，美国已出现300+州及地方数据中心禁令/暂停。但现代数据中心已能缓解担忧：微软新一代芯片级闭环冷却零水耗；谷歌全球PUE 1.09低于行业平均1.56；数据中心未推高居民电价；"自带电力"成趋势，Google、微软、Meta纷纷签订核电合同。

Berryxia.AI@berryxia · 5天前52

Dario 害死了大模型公司！！ OpenAI GPT-5.6 被迫都不敢正常发布… 世界上最好的AI模型在一个周三从互联网上消失了。 Fable上线三天，人们在用它开发。 公司在围绕它做规划，然后Anthropic把它关掉了。 原因不是技术故障，原因是一通来自美国政府的电话。 2026年4月，Anthropic发布了Fable。 他们没有公开上线，而是先给了一小群合作伙伴。 他们说这个模型太强大了，不能公开发布。 美国政府注意到了，他们要求Anthropic限制非美国公民的访问。 Anthropic照做了，模型在几天内被撤下。 一个月后，OpenAI的GPT 5.6准备好了。他们训练了好几个月。 Sam Altman看到了Fable的下场。他看着眼前的局势做了一个判断。 如果我们现在发布5.6，正好赶上Fable被禁，政府会对我们做同样的事。 所以OpenAI没有发布，据The Information报道，美国政府要求OpenAI错开发布时间。先给一小群值得信赖的合作伙伴。 公众稍后才能拿到，也许是几周后。没人知道。 这就是AI监管。 不是写在法律里的，不是国会投票通过的。就是三个实体之间的一系列电话和非正式协议：Anthropic、OpenAI和美国政府。 这件事的策划者是Dario Amodei。 两年来，Anthropic一直在运行一场基于恐惧的营销活动。 他们发布关于中国公司蒸馏攻击的报告。他们谈论网络安全风险，他们描述白领失业潮。 他们告诉政府，他们的模型对公众来说太危险了。 然后他们请求政府提供保护。 比尔·格利，硅谷最知名的风险投资人之一，把话说得很直接。 Anthropic本可以就蒸馏攻击提起诉讼。但他们没有走法律途径，他们选择了游说监管。 法院只能判赔，监管能提供多年的竞争保护。 影响是蛮大的。 当只有一小群公司能率先获得前沿模型，它们就会加速跑得更远。 用Fable 5.0训练Fable 5.1。再用5.1训练5.2。差距越来越大。 初创公司和开源实验室无法竞争，因为它们用的是六个月前的模型。 OpenAI的IPO被推迟到2027年。 不是因为市场条件。是因为他们对监管框架的走向完全没有头绪。 想参与价值创造的散户投资者只能等。 与此同时，中国没有减速。 美国限制自家模型访问的每一分钟，中国实验室都在缩小差距，竞争优势在缩小。 Box的CEO亚伦·利维写道，我们现在有了事实上的AI监管。 今后那些在特定算力规模上训练的模型，发布前需要经过政府审查，这一点已经不再显而易见。这也许是不可避免的。 但它正在发生，而且是以非正式的方式发生的。 OpenAI研究员Noam Brown发帖说GPT 5.6在编程方面强得离谱。 他说希望尽快让所有人都能用上。 OpenAI自己的博客文章重点写了什么？ 安全。它描述了模型在网络攻防方面的能力，它描述了对齐测试。 然后出现了一句改变一切的话。 作为我们与美国政府持续接触的一部分，我们在发布前预览了计划和模型能力。 一家私营公司现在把最先进的技术先展示给政府看，再展示给公众。 政府决定谁在什么时候能拿到。 一年前，人们还在讨论AI监管是否必要。今天，监管已经存在了。 它从未被写下来，从未被公开辩论。 它是通过恐惧、游说和一系列电话建立起来的。 开源比以往任何时候都更重要。 但开源落后于前沿。那些构建最好模型的公司跑得最快，也是这个安排中获利最多的人。 没有人问的那个问题很简单。 如果Anthropic的模型强大到危险，为什么它们不够强大到实时检测蒸馏攻击？ 如果它们能在几年内治愈癌症，为什么它们挡不住两万个欺诈账户提取模型权重？ 答案是，恐惧才是产品。 监管才是目标。

译Anthropic 发布 Fable 三天后，美国政府要求限制非美公民访问，模型被撤下。一个月后 OpenAI GPT-5.6 准备就绪，Sam Altman 因政府压力延迟发布，仅向可信伙伴开放。研究员称 GPT-5.6 编程极强，官方博文侧重安全。Box CEO 指出已形成事实监管：达到特定算力规模的模型发布前需政府审查。OpenAI 推迟 IPO 至 2027 年。Anthropic CEO 被指用恐惧营销游说监管获得保护。中国未减速，差距缩小。开源实验室落后。

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · 5天前58

The U.S. AI buildout is running into a harder constraint than GPUs: permission. The Information’s new map finds 300+ state and local data-center bans or moratoriums since 2023, with 275+ passed this year and 75+ still under consideration; resistance is strongest in the Midwest and South, exactly where hyperscalers want cheap land and megawatt-scale power. But the backlash against data centers is outrunning the facts. The most current datacenter is increasingly designed to solve the two biggest fears: water and power bills. Start with water. Microsoft’s next-generation AI data centers use chip-level, closed-loop cooling that consumes zero water for cooling and can avoid more than 125 million liters per year per site. Its fleetwide water-use efficiency has already improved 39% since 2021, to 0.30 liters per kWh. Google reports that 86% of its freshwater withdrawals come from low- or medium-risk sources, and its global data-center fleet runs at a 1.09 PUE versus a 1.56 industry average—meaning far less wasted overhead energy. Electric bills are not automatically shifted to households, either. A recent causal study of U.S. retail rates from 2015–2024 found data centers modestly lowered average rates by spreading fixed grid costs across more electricity sales. And “bring your own power” is already the new trend - e.g. Google’s 500 MW nuclear deal, Microsoft’s 835 MW Three Mile Island agreement, and Meta’s 1,121 MW nuclear contract.

译美国AI基础设施建设最大瓶颈已从GPU变为许可。《The Information》地图显示2023年以来有300多项州级和地方数据中心禁令或暂停，今年通过275项，还有75项在审，中西部和南部抵制最强。但现实数据反超担忧：微软新一代AI数据中心采用芯片级闭环冷却，每站每年避免超1.25亿升水，全舰队用水效率自2021年提升39%至0.30升/kWh；谷歌86%淡水来自低中风险源，全球PUE 1.09（行业均值1.56）。2015–2024年研究表明数据中心通过分摊固定电网成本适度降低了居民平均电价。趋势已转为“自带电源”：谷歌500 MW核电、微软835 MW三哩岛、Meta 1121 MW核电协议。

meng shao@shao__meng · 5天前49

突然想到一个问题：美国政府可以限制他们国家的 AI 团队（OpenAI 和 Anthropic）按照政府的要求对外提供模型，范围、条件、节奏都可以限制，甚至一刀切。 但是对几个月后会追上的中国模型，怎么办？他们大部分都是开源的啊！ 难道要搞一个美国版 GFW？再限制美国模型托管团队们不能推理中国模型？

译推文作者提出一个矛盾：美国政府可以要求OpenAI、Anthropic等国内AI团队按政府指令限制模型对外提供的范围、条件和节奏，甚至一刀切。但几个月后中国模型就会追上，且大部分是开源的。届时美国要如何应对？难道要搞一个美国版GFW，再限制美国模型托管团队不能推理中国模型？

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · 5天前47

Per Axios: Fable 5 is expected to be back and available starting next week. Let’s hope it won’t be too heavily guardrailed or lobotomized, and that access will be broad.

译据 Axios 报道：Fable 5 预计将从下周起回归并可用。希望它不会受到过于严格的护栏或削弱，且访问权限能广泛开放。