Deedy@deedydas · 5月28日70ChatGPT had 80% of global AI users six months ago. Today it’s 60%. Consumer AI is no longer a one-horse race. Here’s a break down.
In that time, Gemini grew from ~20% to ~50% of ChatGPT's unique users.
Claude grew from ~3% to ~20%.
In fact, Claude is the fastest growing website in the top 100 last quarter, followed by DeepSeek (#78, 105%) and Cricbuzz (#52, +69%).
Global website rankings:
– ChatGPT #5 (+11%QoQ)
– Gemini #15 (+27% QoQ)
– Claude #36 (+255% QoQ)
Active users:
Gemini has publicly reported 900M monthly active users and ChatGPT as 900M weekly active users. This number counts native desktop and mobile, so I (naively) use a multiple to scale up web traffic from SimilarWeb. This implies:
— ChatGPT: ~900M WAU, ~1.5B MAU
— Gemini: ~500M WAU, 900M MAU
— Claude: ~150-200M WAU, ~250-300M MAU
Geographically, Gemini has significantly caught up in non-English speaking countries, with 65-70% of ChatGPT in India, Brazil, Japan, Indonesia, Korea and Vietnam while Claude in particular ironically shows remarkable growth in China (!).
VCs often ask startups "What if Google decided to do this?" and usually it's the wrong question. But when Google does indeed decide to put the full force of a company behind something, they're formidable.
This market is starting to look a lot less "winner takes all" and a lot more like cloud market (AWS/Azure/GCP) or wireless market (Verizon/AT&T/T-Mobile) with 3 dominant players: a triopoly.
译消费级AI市场格局发生显著变化。ChatGPT在全球用户中的份额从半年前的80%下滑至60%。同期,Gemini用户数增至约为ChatGPT的50%,Claude份额从约3%增长至20%。在网站流量方面,Claude是上季度增长最快的百强网站。活跃用户数估算显示,ChatGPT周活跃用户约9亿,月活跃用户可能达15亿;Gemini月活跃用户为9亿;Claude月活跃用户约为2.5-3亿。在印度、巴西等非英语国家,Gemini用户数已接近ChatGPT的65-70%,而Claude在中国增长尤为显著。市场形态正从“赢家通吃”向类似云计算或电信市场的三方垄断演变。