# OpenAI预测2028年硬件成本1210亿美元2030年代方盈利

- 来源：Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai)
- 发布时间：2026-04-11 23:48
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmnw1yupm01bjslc37zcq1b8p
- 原文链接：https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2042993227809329237

## AI 摘要

据《华尔街日报》报道，OpenAI预测2028年仅AI研究硬件成本就将高达1210亿美元。尽管当年销售额预计翻倍，公司仍将面临850亿美元亏损，预计直到2030年代才能实现整体盈利。竞争对手Anthropic也面临类似的训练成本激增轨迹，只是规模较小。分析指出，两家公司只有在忽略计算支出的情况下才能实现早期盈利，反映出巨额基础设施投入正成为AI行业的普遍挑战。

## 正文

WSJ： OpenAI forecasting $121B in AI research hardware costs for 2028 by itself.

Even though sales are expected to double that year， losses would still hit $85B， and the company does not expect overall profits until the 2030s.

Anthropic's outlook shows the same steep upward path in training costs， just at a lower scale， and both companies seem to reach early profitability only if compute spending is ignored.

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wsj .com/tech/ai/openai-anthropic-ipo-finances-04b3cfb9