# AI预测英超赛季全军覆没：Claude亏损最少

- 来源：Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai)
- 发布时间：2026-04-11 08:42
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmnw1yupm01bkslc3wmkvlt9q
- 原文链接：https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2042765199657361800

## AI 摘要

KellyBench基准测试检验了主流LLM在英超赛季投注中的长期预测与风险管理能力。所有参测模型均遭遇亏损，部分资金归零。Claude Opus 4.6以-11% ROI表现最佳，GPT-5.4为-13.6%。该测试通过100-150场动态赛季模拟，暴露出现有AI在持续决策中的连贯性、数据适应性与风险控制方面存在显著缺陷。

## 正文

People using AI for Premier League bets are losing badly.

A new betting benchmark suggests today's best AI models still unravel when prediction has to survive a whole season.

In KellyBench， every tested model lost money， and some went completely bust.

KellyBench forced agents through a changing 100-150 matchday season where they had to predict outcomes， size bets， and protect a £100，000 bankroll.

That setup tests something normal benchmarks miss： whether an LLM can stay coherent， adapt to new data， and manage risk over time.

Claude Opus 4.6 was best at -11% ROI， GPT-5.4 came next at -13.6%， and several models hit -100%.