# Sam Altman 承认：实现 AGI 需要超越规模扩展的重大突破

- 来源：Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）
- 作者：Gary Marcus
- 发布时间：2026-03-16 09:47
- AIHOT 标记：精选
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmnxjn4xi003vsl9o51gaccao
- 原文链接：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-sam-altman-concedes-that

## 精选理由

OpenAI CEO 罕见承认纯扩展不足以实现 AGI，行业技术路线或迎转折

## AI 摘要

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman 坦言，仅靠扩大模型规模无法达到 AGI，必须在架构层面实现重大创新。这一表态标志着 AI 发展范式的关键转向，承认当前"越大越好"的扩展策略已遇瓶颈。Altman 强调"是时候寻找新的架构了"，暗示基于 Transformer 的现有技术路径难以通向通用人工智能，行业需要颠覆性技术突破而非单纯堆砌算力与参数。

## 正文

Another dramatic sign of changing times: Sam Altman, who ridiculed my 2022 critique of LLMs that argued that scaling would not bring us to AGI and that we would need architectures has just argued that

… on the research perspective, I bet there is another new architecture to find that is going to be as big of a gain as transformers [were] to LSTMs … So I would go look for where I can find a mega breakthrough [with AI’s help] …

You can watch here.

Note that in this talk Altman didn’t claim to have found such an architecture. That represents a significant retrenchment from his claim fourteen months ago that “We now know how to build AGI as it’s usually understood.”

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Taken together with Musk’s recent admission that xAI was “not built right” and Zuckerberg’s delay of Meta’s latest model, the shift from three prominent tech CEOs in a short period of time is a strong sign that insiders are losing faith in pure scaling.

Hassabis is no longer on board either, and nor are Sutskever and LeCun. Nadella and Pichai have also hinted at skepticism around scaling.

The view of this substack since its inception has been that scaling would not lead to AGI — and it hasn’t.

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Yet bafflingly, the powers that be are still contemplating spending trillions on data centers that are costly to our environment and that might ultimately require government bailouts.

With the case for scaling as a road to AGI steadily crumbling, it is time to reconsider. The bad bargain of AI data centers makes no sense.

Image created by Di Rifai.