# I spent some time trying to distill all the complex factors impacting open models -- economics， capa…

- 来源：Nathan Lambert (@natolambert)
- 发布时间：2026-04-16 02:30
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmo0efc3i00x3sli20up5hc30
- 原文链接：https://x.com/natolambert/status/2044483587680985111

## AI 摘要

我花了一些时间，试图将影响开放模型的所有复杂因素——经济、能力、分发、政策等——提炼成一份清晰的观点列表。以下是完整内容。

1. 令人惊讶的是，基于训练和研究的算力差异，顶尖闭源模型并未对开放模型展现出不断扩大的能力优势，特别是在2025年下半年至今这段时间。

## 正文

I spent some time trying to distill all the complex factors impacting open models -- economics， capabilities， distribution， policy， etc. -- into a clear list of beliefs. Here they are in full.

1. It's surprising that the top closed models did not show a growing capability margin over open models， based on compute differences for training and research， especially in the second half of 2025 and through today.