Editorial note, Apr 28: This post made the Hacker News front page on April 26 and 27 and sparked a large discussion: 840+ points with 590+ comments in 24 hours (estimated to be in the top ~1% of HN posts). Join in to see what the industry thinks! My thanks to everyone who shared their opinions and are continuing to spread the underlying message further across hundreds of shares across LinkedIn, FB, X and more - reaching more than 100K readers in just 48 hours.
In talking to engineering management across tech industry heavy-weights, it's apparent that software engineering is starting to split people into two nebulous groups:
The first group will use A.I. to remove drudgery, move faster, and spend more time on the parts of the job that actually matter i.e. framing problems, making tradeoffs, spotting risks, creating clarity, and producing original insight.
The second group will use A.I. to avoid thinking. They will paste prompts into a box, collect polished output, and present it as though it reflects their own reasoning. For a while, that can look like productivity. It can even look like talent. But it is a dead end.
The software engineers who will be most valuable in the future are not the ones who do everything themselves. They are the ones who refuse to spend time on work that A.I. can do for them, while still understanding everything that is done on their behalf. They use the time savings to operate at a higher level. They elevate their thought process through rigor rather than outsourcing it.
That distinction matters more than people think.
In this post:
The New Failure Mode: Outsourced Thinking (& analogies)
What the Best Engineers Will Do Instead
The Real Source of Value
The Risk for Early-In-Career Engineers
There Is No Shortcut to Judgment
In Summary: The Dividing Line & Organizational Implications
Editorial note, Apr 28: This post made the Hacker News front page on April 26 and 27 and sparked a large discussion: 840+ points with 590+ comments in 24 hours (estimated to be in the top ~1% of HN posts). Join in to see what the industry thinks! My thanks to everyone who shared their opinions and are continuing to spread the underlying message further across hundreds of shares across LinkedIn, FB, X and more - reaching more than 100K readers in just 48 hours.
In talking to engineering management across tech industry heavy-weights, it's apparent that software engineering is starting to split people into two nebulous groups:
The first group will use A.I. to remove drudgery, move faster, and spend more time on the parts of the job that actually matter i.e. framing problems, making tradeoffs, spotting risks, creating clarity, and producing original insight.
Why This Matters Even More to Organizational Health
The New Failure Mode: Outsourced Thinking
A.I. can already generate code, summarize meetings, explain concepts, produce design drafts, and write status updates in seconds. That is useful but also dangerous.
The danger is not that A.I. will make people lazy in some vague moral sense. It is that it makes it easy to simulate competence without building competence.
There is now a very real temptation to hand a model a problem, receive a plausible answer, and then repeat that answer as if it reflects your own understanding. That is close to plagiarism, but in some ways worse. At least when a student copies from another person, there is still a real human source behind the answer. Here, people can present machine-produced reasoning they do not understand, cannot defend, and could not reproduce on their own.
That is intellectual dependency being labeled as leverage.
And that dependency has a cost. Every time you substitute generated output for your own comprehension, you are skipping the exercises / reps that build judgment. You are trading long-term capability for short-term appearance.
I'm going to share some analogies to make this line of thought more concrete and approachable.
The Test-Copying Analogy
Think about a student who copied answers through school. On paper, that student can look successful for a long time. Good grades and possibly even praise.
But when that person reaches a situation where understanding actually matters, the truth comes out. The structure underneath was never built. They do not know how to reason through unfamiliar problems or how to recover when conditions change. They do not know what “right” feels like because they never developed the intuition that comes from doing the work.
A.I. creates the same trap for engineers. If you repeatedly use it to provide answers you could not have developed yourself, you may look effective in the short term and might even outperform others on visible output for a while. But your foundation is hollow. You have borrowed the appearance of mastery without gaining mastery.
That always catches up as it always has in the world before A.I. Because in real engineering work, the hard part is not repeating known answers. The hard part is dealing with ambiguity, incomplete information, conflicting constraints, and problems that do not fit a template. That is where shallow imitation breaks down.
The Calculator Analogy
A calculator is a good tool. Nobody serious argues that people should do every calculation by hand forever.
But there is a real difference between using a calculator to save time and using a calculator because you never learned number sense in the first place.
A person with strong mental math can use a calculator well because they can estimate, catch obvious errors, and understand whether the answer even makes sense. A person without that foundation becomes dependent. They cannot sanity-check the result. They cannot detect garbage. They just trust the screen.
A.I. works the same way. An engineer with real depth can use A.I. aggressively because they can inspect the output, challenge it, refine it, and reject it when needed. They know where the likely flaws are. They know which edge cases matter. They know when something sounds polished but is fundamentally wrong.
An engineer without that depth is in a much worse position. They are not really using A.I. They are being led by it. That is a terrible place to be in a profession where correctness, judgment, and consequences matter.
The Self-Driving Car Analogy
This should be its own topic (as I realize typing this out) because of how even more consequential it can be. But let's go with it --
A self-driving car can reduce fatigue and handle routine situations. But if you rely on it before you understand driving, you are not becoming a better driver. You are becoming a passenger with access to controls.
The problem shows up when conditions become nonstandard: poor visibility, unusual road layouts, unpredictable behavior from other drivers, a system failure, or a sudden hazard. In those moments, raw dependency is exposed. You either have skill or you do not.
A.I. is similar. It performs best on common patterns, known structures, familiar transformations, and heavily represented problem types. That makes it incredibly useful. But engineering work constantly wanders into the nonstandard: shifting requirements, subtle bugs, unclear ownership, competing architectural goals, partial data, organizational friction, and tradeoffs with no perfect answer.
When the road is straight and well-marked, almost anyone can look capable with enough automation. When the road gets ugly, real skill becomes visible. If you have spent years letting the system “drive” while you only occasionally touch the wheel, do not be surprised when you cannot take over cleanly.
What the Best Engineers Will Do Instead
The best engineers will absolutely use A.I. more, not less. But they will use it with a very different posture.
They will let A.I. draft boilerplate, summarize docs, generate test scaffolding, propose refactorings, surface possible failure modes, accelerate investigation, and compress routine work. They will happily offload the mechanical parts of the job. But they will also:
ask sharper questions.
define the real problem instead of merely responding to the visible one.
optimize for clarity and brevity (as before), instead of a lot of polished language that says little of substance.
generate new, high-value knowledge - instead of simply rehashing / remixing existing knowledge in the system.
Then they will take the reclaimed time and invest it where it matters most.
The Real Source of Value
For years, people have confused software engineering with code production. That confusion is now getting exposed.
If the job were mainly about producing syntactically valid code, then of course A.I. would be on a direct path to replacing large parts of the profession. But that was never the highest-value part of the work. The value was always in judgment.
The valuable engineer is the one who sees the hidden constraint before it causes an outage. The one who notices that the team is solving the wrong problem. The one who reduces a vague debate into crisp tradeoffs. The one who identifies the missing abstraction. The one who can debug reality, not just read code. The one who can create clarity where everyone else sees noise.
A.I. can support that work. It cannot own it.
In fact, the engineers who produce the most value in the future will often be the ones generating the knowledge that makes A.I. more useful in the first place. They will create the design principles, domain understanding, patterns, context, and decision frameworks that improve the machine’s effectiveness. They will feed the system with better questions, better constraints, and better corrections.
In that world, the engineer is not replaced by A.I. The engineer becomes more leveraged because they are operating above the level of raw output.
The Risk for Early-in-Career Engineers
This issue is especially important for people early in their careers.
Early years matter because that is when foundational skills are formed. Debugging instinct. System intuition. Precision. Taste. Skepticism. The ability to decompose a problem. The ability to explain why something works, not just that it appears to work.
Those skills are built through friction. Through struggle. Through getting things wrong and fixing them. Through tracing failures back to root cause. Through writing something and realizing it does not survive contact with reality.
That process is not optional. It is how engineers acquire and elevate their competency. If early-career engineers use A.I. to remove all struggle from the learning loop, they are hurting their development.
Someone who uses A.I. to answer every hard question may look efficient for a quarter or two. But they may also be quietly failing to build the very capabilities their future depends on. They are skipping the stage where understanding is forged.
Going back to the analogies: This is like copying answers through university and then showing up to a job that requires independent thought. It is like using a calculator for every arithmetic task and never developing number sense. It is like relying on self-driving features before learning how to actually drive. The support system may make you look functional, but it does not make you capable.
And eventually raw capability is the main thing that matters. There is no substitute.
There is No Shortcut to Judgment
This is the part that some people may not want to hear --
There is no generated explanation that transfers mastery into your brain without you doing the work.
There is no way to outsource reasoning for long enough that you still end up strong at reasoning.
You can outsource mechanics, accelerate research and compress routine tasks. You can remove enormous amounts of low-value labor. All of that is good and should happen.
But you cannot skip the formation of skill and expect to possess it anyway.
That is the central mistake behind the most naive uses of A.I. People think they are saving time, when in reality they are often deferring a bill that will come due later in the form of weak judgment, shallow understanding, and limited adaptability.
In Summary: The Dividing Line & Organizational Implications
The dividing line is simple:
If A.I. is helping you understand faster, think deeper, and operate at a higher level, it is making you more valuable.
If A.I. is helping you avoid understanding, avoid struggle, and avoid ownership of the reasoning, it is making you less valuable.
One path compounds, while the other path hollows you out and sets you up ripe for irrelevance.
That is why the future does not belong to the engineers who merely use A.I. It belongs to the engineers who know exactly what to delegate, exactly what to own, and exactly how to turn time savings into better thinking.
If not already, it's time to make informed choices on how you shape your future in the industry.
Why This Matters Even More to Organizational Health
Engineering management will face the same dividing line.
Some leaders will recognize the difference between engineers who use A.I. to accelerate understanding and engineers who use it to simulate understanding. Others will not. That gap will matter more than many organizations realize.
One of the defining traits of strong engineering leadership in the A.I. era will be the ability to distinguish polished output from real judgment. Leaders who cannot tell the difference may reward speed, fluency, and presentation while missing the deeper signals of technical depth: originality, rigor, sound tradeoff analysis, and the ability to reason clearly about unfamiliar problems.
That creates organizational risk.
The most capable engineers are often the ones producing the insight, context, design judgment, and corrective feedback that make both teams and A.I. systems more effective. If an organization allows low-understanding, high-fluency work to spread unchecked, it does not just lower the quality of individual output. It starts to degrade the knowledge environment itself. Reviews get weaker. Design discussions get shallower. Documents become more polished and less useful. Over time, the organization becomes worse at generating the very clarity and technical judgment it depends on.
This is why leadership matters so much here. The challenge is not merely adopting A.I. tools. It is protecting the conditions under which real thinking, learning, and craftsmanship continue to thrive.
That starts with hiring. Organizations will need better ways to detect genuine understanding rather than surface-level fluency. They will need interview loops that test reasoning, not just polished answers. They will need evaluation systems that reward clarity, depth, sound judgment, and durable technical contribution rather than sheer output volume.
It also affects team design and culture. Strong engineers should not spend disproportionate amounts of time cleaning up plausible but shallow work generated by people who have outsourced their thinking. If leadership does not actively guard against that, high performers become force multipliers for everyone except themselves. That is a fast path to frustration, lowered standards, and eventual attrition.
The organizations that handle this well will not be the ones that simply push A.I. adoption hardest. They will be the ones that learn to separate leverage from dependency, acceleration from imitation, and genuine capability from convincing output.
In the A.I. era, organizational quality will increasingly depend on whether leadership can still recognize the difference.
Editorial note: Like all content on this site, the views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.
The second group will use A.I. to avoid thinking. They will paste prompts into a box, collect polished output, and present it as though it reflects their own reasoning. For a while, that can look like productivity. It can even look like talent. But it is a dead end.
The software engineers who will be most valuable in the future are not the ones who do everything themselves. They are the ones who refuse to spend time on work that A.I. can do for them, while still understanding everything that is done on their behalf. They use the time savings to operate at a higher level. They elevate their thought process through rigor rather than outsourcing it.
That distinction matters more than people think.
In this post:
The New Failure Mode: Outsourced Thinking (& analogies)
What the Best Engineers Will Do Instead
The Real Source of Value
The Risk for Early-In-Career Engineers
There Is No Shortcut to Judgment
In Summary: The Dividing Line & Organizational Implications
Why This Matters Even More to Organizational Health
The New Failure Mode: Outsourced Thinking
A.I. can already generate code, summarize meetings, explain concepts, produce design drafts, and write status updates in seconds. That is useful but also dangerous.
The danger is not that A.I. will make people lazy in some vague moral sense. It is that it makes it easy to simulate competence without building competence.
There is now a very real temptation to hand a model a problem, receive a plausible answer, and then repeat that answer as if it reflects your own understanding. That is close to plagiarism, but in some ways worse. At least when a student copies from another person, there is still a real human source behind the answer. Here, people can present machine-produced reasoning they do not understand, cannot defend, and could not reproduce on their own.
That is intellectual dependency being labeled as leverage.
And that dependency has a cost. Every time you substitute generated output for your own comprehension, you are skipping the exercises / reps that build judgment. You are trading long-term capability for short-term appearance.
I'm going to share some analogies to make this line of thought more concrete and approachable.
The Test-Copying Analogy
Think about a student who copied answers through school. On paper, that student can look successful for a long time. Good grades and possibly even praise.
But when that person reaches a situation where understanding actually matters, the truth comes out. The structure underneath was never built. They do not know how to reason through unfamiliar problems or how to recover when conditions change. They do not know what “right” feels like because they never developed the intuition that comes from doing the work.
A.I. creates the same trap for engineers. If you repeatedly use it to provide answers you could not have developed yourself, you may look effective in the short term and might even outperform others on visible output for a while. But your foundation is hollow. You have borrowed the appearance of mastery without gaining mastery.
That always catches up as it always has in the world before A.I. Because in real engineering work, the hard part is not repeating known answers. The hard part is dealing with ambiguity, incomplete information, conflicting constraints, and problems that do not fit a template. That is where shallow imitation breaks down.
The Calculator Analogy
A calculator is a good tool. Nobody serious argues that people should do every calculation by hand forever.
But there is a real difference between using a calculator to save time and using a calculator because you never learned number sense in the first place.
A person with strong mental math can use a calculator well because they can estimate, catch obvious errors, and understand whether the answer even makes sense. A person without that foundation becomes dependent. They cannot sanity-check the result. They cannot detect garbage. They just trust the screen.
A.I. works the same way. An engineer with real depth can use A.I. aggressively because they can inspect the output, challenge it, refine it, and reject it when needed. They know where the likely flaws are. They know which edge cases matter. They know when something sounds polished but is fundamentally wrong.
An engineer without that depth is in a much worse position. They are not really using A.I. They are being led by it. That is a terrible place to be in a profession where correctness, judgment, and consequences matter.
The Self-Driving Car Analogy
This should be its own topic (as I realize typing this out) because of how even more consequential it can be. But let's go with it --
A self-driving car can reduce fatigue and handle routine situations. But if you rely on it before you understand driving, you are not becoming a better driver. You are becoming a passenger with access to controls.
The problem shows up when conditions become nonstandard: poor visibility, unusual road layouts, unpredictable behavior from other drivers, a system failure, or a sudden hazard. In those moments, raw dependency is exposed. You either have skill or you do not.
A.I. is similar. It performs best on common patterns, known structures, familiar transformations, and heavily represented problem types. That makes it incredibly useful. But engineering work constantly wanders into the nonstandard: shifting requirements, subtle bugs, unclear ownership, competing architectural goals, partial data, organizational friction, and tradeoffs with no perfect answer.
When the road is straight and well-marked, almost anyone can look capable with enough automation. When the road gets ugly, real skill becomes visible. If you have spent years letting the system “drive” while you only occasionally touch the wheel, do not be surprised when you cannot take over cleanly.
What the Best Engineers Will Do Instead
The best engineers will absolutely use A.I. more, not less. But they will use it with a very different posture.
They will let A.I. draft boilerplate, summarize docs, generate test scaffolding, propose refactorings, surface possible failure modes, accelerate investigation, and compress routine work. They will happily offload the mechanical parts of the job. But they will also:
ask sharper questions.
define the real problem instead of merely responding to the visible one.
optimize for clarity and brevity (as before), instead of a lot of polished language that says little of substance.
generate new, high-value knowledge - instead of simply rehashing / remixing existing knowledge in the system.
Then they will take the reclaimed time and invest it where it matters most.
The Real Source of Value
For years, people have confused software engineering with code production. That confusion is now getting exposed.
If the job were mainly about producing syntactically valid code, then of course A.I. would be on a direct path to replacing large parts of the profession. But that was never the highest-value part of the work. The value was always in judgment.
The valuable engineer is the one who sees the hidden constraint before it causes an outage. The one who notices that the team is solving the wrong problem. The one who reduces a vague debate into crisp tradeoffs. The one who identifies the missing abstraction. The one who can debug reality, not just read code. The one who can create clarity where everyone else sees noise.
A.I. can support that work. It cannot own it.
In fact, the engineers who produce the most value in the future will often be the ones generating the knowledge that makes A.I. more useful in the first place. They will create the design principles, domain understanding, patterns, context, and decision frameworks that improve the machine’s effectiveness. They will feed the system with better questions, better constraints, and better corrections.
In that world, the engineer is not replaced by A.I. The engineer becomes more leveraged because they are operating above the level of raw output.
The Risk for Early-in-Career Engineers
This issue is especially important for people early in their careers.
Early years matter because that is when foundational skills are formed. Debugging instinct. System intuition. Precision. Taste. Skepticism. The ability to decompose a problem. The ability to explain why something works, not just that it appears to work.
Those skills are built through friction. Through struggle. Through getting things wrong and fixing them. Through tracing failures back to root cause. Through writing something and realizing it does not survive contact with reality.
That process is not optional. It is how engineers acquire and elevate their competency. If early-career engineers use A.I. to remove all struggle from the learning loop, they are hurting their development.
Someone who uses A.I. to answer every hard question may look efficient for a quarter or two. But they may also be quietly failing to build the very capabilities their future depends on. They are skipping the stage where understanding is forged.
Going back to the analogies: This is like copying answers through university and then showing up to a job that requires independent thought. It is like using a calculator for every arithmetic task and never developing number sense. It is like relying on self-driving features before learning how to actually drive. The support system may make you look functional, but it does not make you capable.
And eventually raw capability is the main thing that matters. There is no substitute.
There is No Shortcut to Judgment
This is the part that some people may not want to hear --
There is no generated explanation that transfers mastery into your brain without you doing the work.
There is no way to outsource reasoning for long enough that you still end up strong at reasoning.
You can outsource mechanics, accelerate research and compress routine tasks. You can remove enormous amounts of low-value labor. All of that is good and should happen.
But you cannot skip the formation of skill and expect to possess it anyway.
That is the central mistake behind the most naive uses of A.I. People think they are saving time, when in reality they are often deferring a bill that will come due later in the form of weak judgment, shallow understanding, and limited adaptability.
In Summary: The Dividing Line & Organizational Implications
The dividing line is simple:
If A.I. is helping you understand faster, think deeper, and operate at a higher level, it is making you more valuable.
If A.I. is helping you avoid understanding, avoid struggle, and avoid ownership of the reasoning, it is making you less valuable.
One path compounds, while the other path hollows you out and sets you up ripe for irrelevance.
That is why the future does not belong to the engineers who merely use A.I. It belongs to the engineers who know exactly what to delegate, exactly what to own, and exactly how to turn time savings into better thinking.
If not already, it's time to make informed choices on how you shape your future in the industry.
Why This Matters Even More to Organizational Health
Engineering management will face the same dividing line.
Some leaders will recognize the difference between engineers who use A.I. to accelerate understanding and engineers who use it to simulate understanding. Others will not. That gap will matter more than many organizations realize.
One of the defining traits of strong engineering leadership in the A.I. era will be the ability to distinguish polished output from real judgment. Leaders who cannot tell the difference may reward speed, fluency, and presentation while missing the deeper signals of technical depth: originality, rigor, sound tradeoff analysis, and the ability to reason clearly about unfamiliar problems.
That creates organizational risk.
The most capable engineers are often the ones producing the insight, context, design judgment, and corrective feedback that make both teams and A.I. systems more effective. If an organization allows low-understanding, high-fluency work to spread unchecked, it does not just lower the quality of individual output. It starts to degrade the knowledge environment itself. Reviews get weaker. Design discussions get shallower. Documents become more polished and less useful. Over time, the organization becomes worse at generating the very clarity and technical judgment it depends on.
This is why leadership matters so much here. The challenge is not merely adopting A.I. tools. It is protecting the conditions under which real thinking, learning, and craftsmanship continue to thrive.
That starts with hiring. Organizations will need better ways to detect genuine understanding rather than surface-level fluency. They will need interview loops that test reasoning, not just polished answers. They will need evaluation systems that reward clarity, depth, sound judgment, and durable technical contribution rather than sheer output volume.
It also affects team design and culture. Strong engineers should not spend disproportionate amounts of time cleaning up plausible but shallow work generated by people who have outsourced their thinking. If leadership does not actively guard against that, high performers become force multipliers for everyone except themselves. That is a fast path to frustration, lowered standards, and eventual attrition.
The organizations that handle this well will not be the ones that simply push A.I. adoption hardest. They will be the ones that learn to separate leverage from dependency, acceleration from imitation, and genuine capability from convincing output.
In the A.I. era, organizational quality will increasingly depend on whether leadership can still recognize the difference.
Editorial note: Like all content on this site, the views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.