所有关于AI的讨论最终都归结为两个问题:AI能变得多强大?以及发展速度有多快?这些其实是对S型曲线形态的预测。 其他所有议题(就业影响、潜在风险等)都衍生自这两个问题。我认为更频繁地聚焦于此会很有帮助。
Every AI discussion ultimately rests on two questions: how good can AI get? And how fast? They are predictions about the s-curve shape.
Everything else (job impact, potential risks, etc.) is downstream of those questions. I think it would be useful to focus on them more often.