# 完全自动化AI研发：2027年底概率约30%，2028年底概率超60%

- 来源：Chubby♨️ (@kimmonismus)
- 发布时间：2026-05-05 01:51
- AIHOT 分数：65
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmoriw2xt009nsl1yutpuccyq
- 原文链接：https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/2051359109354516912

## AI 摘要

Anthropic的Jack Clark预测，完全自动化的前沿AI研发在2026年可能不会实现，但在未来1-2年内可能出现概念验证，即AI能端到端训练非前沿的后续模型。他给出的核心预测是：到2027年底有约30%的可能性，到2028年底有超过60%的可能性，前沿AI系统能够自主构建其后续模型。这一进程的关键驱动因素包括编码能力的快速提升、长视野智能体工作、基准饱和、AI管理子代理，以及模型在处理核心AI研究任务（如微调、内核优化、可复现性和对齐研究）方面出现的早期迹象。

## 正文

Fully automated AI R&D： ~30% chance by the end of 2027， ~60%+ chance by the end of 2028

Overall， Anthropic's Jack Clark has written a very worthwhile essay： His timeline is that fully automated AI R&D probably won't arrive in 2026， but we may see a proof-of-concept within 1-2 years where an AI system can end-to-end train a non-frontier successor model， with a much more serious possibility of frontier-level automated AI R&D by 2027-2028.

His headline forecast is： ~30% chance by the end of 2027， ~60%+ chance by the end of 2028 that a frontier AI system can autonomously build its own successor， driven by rapid gains in coding， long-horizon agent work， benchmark saturation， AI-managed subagents， and early signs of models handling core AI research tasks like fine-tuning， kernel optimization， reproducibility， and alignment research.

### 引用推文

> Chubby♨️：Anthropics Jack Clarke now believes that recurse self-improvement has a 60% change of happening by end of 2028.