高盛CEO David Solomon认为,AI将自动化约25%的现有工作时间,受冲击的入门级岗位已相对下降16%,但不会使人类劳动过时。其核心观点是,AI将大幅缩短任务耗时,但市场不会仅满足于更低成本的同等产品。例如,分析师过去制作1张图表,现在能完成更广范围的建模、更快速的对比和更深入的客户服务。这将引发“需求扩张”——自动化提升每位员工的能力,客户随之要求更高的细节、速度、个性化与覆盖范围。文中以数据中心建设可能创造超过20万个建筑岗位为例,说明旧岗位将解构并重组为融合判断、审核、合规与AI监督的新混合角色。
nytimes: Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon just argued that AI will automate large parts of work without making human labor obsolete.
Goldman estimates AI may automate 25% of current work hours, while exposed entry-level roles have already seen a 16% relative decline.
However, he says that AI cuts the time needed for a task, but markets rarely keep the same product and merely make it cheaper.
They raise the standard, so an analyst who once built 1 chart now produces broader modeling, faster comparisons, sharper client work, and more follow-up.
So there will be demand expansion, where automation makes each worker capable of more, and customers then expect more detail, speed, personalization, and coverage.