Google DeepMind负责人 Demis Hassabis 将其 AGI 实现时间预测提前至2029年,并称我们正处于“奇点”的初级阶段。他提出的“爱因斯坦测试”基准是:用知识截止于1911年的 AI 能否独立推导出广义相对论,目前尚无系统能接近通过。然而,业界对 AGI 的定义仍无共识,例如 OpenAI CEO Altman 预测时间为2028年,xAI CEO Musk 宣称奇点已在1月发生,而 Anthropic 则避免使用该术语。尽管定义不明,AGI 实现的时间线预测正在不断缩短。
Demis Hassabis now says AGI could arrive by 2029, a year earlier than his previous estimate, and told Axios we're standing in the "foothills of the singularity."
Bold claim. But the field still can't agree on what AGI actually means. Hassabis defines it one way, Altman another, Anthropic avoids the term altogether. We're moving up the timeline for something we haven't even defined.
Hassabis own AGI benchmark is the Einstein Test: train an AI with a knowledge cutoff at 1911 and see if it independently derives general relativity (Hassabis at India AI Impact Summit). No current system comes close to passing that. Meanwhile Andreessen says AGI arrived three months ago, Altman says 2028, Musk declared we're already in the singularity in January, and Anthropic won't even use the term.