Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · X摩根士丹利最新预测，AI技术可能促使欧洲银行裁减高达20%的工作岗位，较此前预期的10%翻倍。该行预计AI能带来30%的生产力提升，主要影响合规审查、风险监控、KYC审核等后台重复性工作。预测显示，到2030年，受影响的岗位可能从20万增至约40万，原因是从试点转向实质性重组。变革将主要通过自然减员实现，并催生对数据工程师、AI操作员等新角色的需求。
Morgan Stanley now says European banks could remove up to 20% of jobs as AI takes over repeatable banking work.
The bank expects 30% productivity gains， meaning fewer people may be needed for tasks like compliance checks， risk monitoring， KYC reviews， AML screening， reporting， and other back-office work.
The forecast has doubled from 10% to 20%， or roughly 200K to 400K possible roles by 2030， because banks are moving from AI pilots to real restructuring plans.
Most cuts would likely come through retirements， attrition， and managed exits， because European labour rules make sudden mass layoffs harder than in the US.
The workforce will not just shrink， it will change， with fewer traditional processors and more data engineers， AI operators， and model-risk specialists.