# AI产业链估值存在错配，利润将流向关键瓶颈环节

- 来源：Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai)
- 发布时间：2026-05-28 23:31
- AIHOT 分数：60
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmppnwued01u8slvygyqyze6k
- 原文链接：https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2060021105763766433

## AI 摘要

当前AI产业链各环节（如NVIDIA、内存、定制芯片、光网络、电力设备等）的估值可能无法同时准确，市场对相关公司的排序并不一致，因为不同环节隐含了截然不同的增长预期。繁荣不会自动让每个供应商都持续增长，利润池将流向最难替代、最难延迟、最难被客户压价的环节。若稀缺的是电力、冷却和物理容量，则相关基础设施供应商应获溢价；若稀缺的仍是加速计算，则NVIDIA和内存可能被低估。此外，ASIC（定制芯片）叙事也增加了不确定性。

## 正文

"If you look at the valuations for all these AI names， they just can't all be accurate. You have memory makers at 3-5X PE. You have NVIDIA at a really low PE."

~ @GavinSBaker Managing Partner & CIO of Atreides （$11B AUM）.

Nvidia， memory， custom chips， optical networking， power equipment， cooling systems and data center builders are all being treated as winners of the same spending boom.

But each bucket is pricing a different version of the boom.

There is Cross-sectionally inefficiency， i.e. the market is not ranking related AI companies consistently， because one group implies massive data center growth while another group implies slower or riskier growth.

A boom does not automatically make every supplier a compounder， because the profit pool moves toward whatever is hardest to substitute， hardest to delay， and hardest for customers to bargain down.

If the scarce thing is electricity， cooling， and physical capacity， then infrastructure suppliers should command the premium.

If the scarce thing is still accelerated compute， then Nvidia and memory are probably too cheap relative to the rest of the chain.

The ASIC narrative adds another layer of fog.

Broadcom can be growing fast in custom chips and still not be taking the most valuable parts of Nvidia's growth.

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From " All-In Podcast" YouTube channel， （link in comment）