# 高盛：AI 智能体 token 消耗到 2030 年将增长 24 倍

- 来源：Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai)
- 发布时间：2026-05-30 17:18
- AIHOT 分数：54
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmps62ds0075psllj36rwgy3t
- 原文链接：https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2060652043296182521

## AI 摘要

高盛预测，到 2030 年，由 AI 智能体驱动的模型 token 月度消耗量将激增至 120 quadrillion，较当前增长约 24 倍。核心原因是智能体在完成单次用户请求时，需要进行多轮工具调用、结果检查与修正，导致其 token 消耗量可能达到普通问答的 10 倍甚至 50 倍以上。这一趋势引发了成本担忧，Uber 和 Microsoft 等公司已开始重新评估昂贵的智能体使用方案。报告同时指出，推理成本正以每年 60%-70% 的速度下降，智能体带来的生产力提升与潜在的 token 浪费正成为新的博弈焦点。

## 正文

Goldman Sachs： "Token use by AI agents is expected to multiply 24 times by 2030"

AI agents are now creating the first serious cost test for the AI boom. As was reported this week， Uber and Microsoft are already rethinking expensive agent usage.

A chatbot may answer once， but an agent plans， calls tools， checks results， edits mistakes， and repeats the loop.

That loop can make one user request consume 10x， 50x， or even far more tokens than a normal answer.

Goldman's bullish case is that monthly token use could reach 120 quadrillion by 2030， while inference cost per token keeps falling 60%-70% per year.

The fight is now between agent productivity and token waste.

Earlier this month， Microsoft began revoking developer access to Claude Code， with plans to move them to its in-house Copilot Command Line Interface tool by June 30. The company has framed this as consolidating teams around its own tools， but the timing at the fiscal year's end hints it may also be about lowering costs.