# 闭源与开源模型分道扬镳，走向不同增长路径

- 来源：Nathan Lambert (@natolambert)
- 发布时间：2026-06-01 22:17
- AIHOT 分数：60
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmpvb0sv20599sl0zg1qwecaj
- 原文链接：https://x.com/natolambert/status/2061452183963582878

## AI 摘要

推文探讨了闭源模型与开源模型未来不同的发展轨迹。观点认为，闭源实验室可以通过提供成本高昂的高端服务（如高端知识工作）来创造并维持利润，这将推动 OpenAI、Anthropic 等公司获得高估值。与此同时，开源模型经济体将逐步发展并壮大，服务于更广泛的长尾应用市场。这表明两种模型体系将在不同的维度上增长，其中闭源模型在边际智能价值驱动溢价的领域优势明显，而开源模型则在其他场景下逐步扩大影响。

## 正文

Can closed labs can create margins with very high cost services in the long-term？ Yes， but only in niches like high end knowledge work.

This'll propel OpenAI/Anthropic to huge valuations soon， while the open model economy slowly grows to be bigger &amp； enable the long-tail of use.

### 引用推文

> Interconnects：Open and closed models are on different exponentials Where marginally higher intelligence drives value, and where it doesn't. https://www.interconnects.ai/p/ope...