AI看跌情绪地图
阅读原文· tomtunguz.com这份AI做空地图把市场怀疑论的矛头指向了谁说得明明白白，GPU云和AI SaaS被看空得最狠，但NVIDIA和超大规模云商几乎没被碰，做投资或者关心谁在裸泳的可以认真看看。
金融市场对AI的看跌情绪正从整体上升转向板块分化。上季度，软件、半导体、云及超大规模公司的空头比例中位数上升约24%。GPU数据中心业务空头股份在过去一年激增60%。AI云与新型云公司的当前空头比例中位数最高，达16.8%，SaaS与开发工具领域随后，分别为9.5%和8.9%。相比之下，超大规模公司和NVIDIA的空头比例极低，仅为1.1%和1.2%。市场怀疑主要针对那些AI业务仍依赖未来资本、需求或运营杠杆的中小型公司。
With Michael Burry 1 & Leopold Aschenbrenner 2 placing heavy short trades on AI, questions about GPU depreciation, & the Saaspocalypse, how negative is the financial market on AI?
We can look at the percentage of shares sold short, a bet the stock will decline.
Across all software, semiconductor, neocloud, data center, & hyperscalers, the median short interest (short shares / total shares) has increased by about 24% in the last quarter.
One segment stands out for gloomy skies in the cloud: the GPU data center businesses, whose shorted shares have grown 60% in the last year 3. AI cloud and neocloud companies have the highest current median short interest at 16.8% of float.
The negative sentiment for SaaS & Dev Tools is a more abrupt & recent phenomenon. Developer tools and infrastructure software follow at 9.5%. Enterprise SaaS and AI apps sit at 8.9%.
Hyperscalers are at the other end of the spectrum. Their median short interest is 1.1%. NVIDIA, the defining AI infrastructure stock, is also lightly shorted: 1.2%.
Semiconductor stocks saw a decrease in short-selling. With memory makers like Micron up 742% this year 4, & many ecosystem CEOs pointing to memory & storage as the limiting factor, the newest trillion-dollar companies are all memory.
The stocks with the most actively bearish betters? Most of these are small or mid-cap companies. The updated chart below adds market capitalization to each company label. The largest AI winners are mostly absent.
SoundHound AI is 36.3% short. C3.ai is 32.2%. BigBear.ai is 29.4%. Applied Digital is 28.0%. UiPath is 22.0%. TeraWulf is 21.3%.
This is the market’s current AI skepticism map.
The skepticism is concentrated in companies whose AI exposure still depends on future capital access, future demand, or future operating leverage.
That distinction matters. If short interest were rising uniformly across AI semiconductors, hyperscalers, and software, the message would be broad fatigue with the AI trade. Instead, the data suggest a more specific view: memory has become critical & in short supply; software & devtools businesses need to prove their worth post-AI; & businesses reselling GPUs have more than their fair share of doubters about current prices versus long-term value.