# 开放模型的繁荣生态

- 来源：Tomer Tunguz 博客（VC 分析）
- 发布时间：2026-06-02 08:00
- AIHOT 分数：61
- AIHOT 标记：精选
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmpwv1omp0100sl79979r1mj7
- 原文链接：https://www.tomtunguz.com/the-thriving-ecosystem-of-open-models

## 精选理由

开放模型在OpenRouter上的token份额已到69%，而且每轮新模型发布都会把使用量推上一个台阶，做推理基础设施的应该重视这个信号。

## AI 摘要

根据OpenRouter平台数据，自2025年以来，开放模型使用量显著增长。最新数据显示，开放权重模型产生了69.1%的token使用量，闭源模型为30.9%。新模型的发布会吸引开发者测试，推动token使用量达到新的平台期。开放模型市场内部竞争激烈，领导地位频繁更迭，如DeepSeek的早期优势在2025年末至2026年初被MiniMax与Kimi模型取代，随后MiMo、Qwen、腾讯Hy3、阿里巴巴及Arcee等模型的发布再次改变了份额格局。尽管开放模型目前仍只占推理总量的一小部分，但激烈的竞争与增长表明，开发者正越来越愿意将生产流量路由至开放模型。

## 正文

Competition is a discovery procedure. — Friedrich Hayek

And developers are discovering the value of open models.

OpenRouter offers a useful view into the model market.1 It is not the whole AI economy. But it is close to the API frontier, where developers can switch models quickly, compare price-performance daily, & route each request to the best available option.

Since 2025, open models have grown sharply on OpenRouter. In the latest model-level snapshot, open-weight models generated 69.1% of named open-versus-closed token volume. Closed models produced 30.9%.

New models attract developer attention & large scale testing, after which token use surges. Each new clustered release of different models sustains a new plateau of token volume.

Just as in the closed-model ecosystem, the competition among open models means rapid innovation & leaderboard changes.

DeepSeek’s early lead gave way to MiniMax & Kimi models in late 2025 & early 2026. Later, launches from MiMo, Qwen, Alibaba’s open-weight model family, Hy3, Tencent’s open-weight model release, & DeepSeek reshuffled share again.

Arcee, a US lab focused, makes a strong appearance recently.

Open models still represent a fraction of overall inference, but the thriving competition, increasing usage, & surge of experimentation suggest developers are increasingly willing to route production traffic to them.

Source data: OpenRouter rankings & usage data, analyzed from weekly token-volume snapshots in the OpenRouter analysis dataset. ↩︎