# Claude Mythos 提前一年达到超级预测者预期

- 来源：Ethan Mollick (@emollick)
- 发布时间：2026-06-04 02:10
- AIHOT 分数：68
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmpye0kmz048rslax507xxm3b
- 原文链接：https://x.com/emollick/status/2062235461364445204

## AI 摘要

5月初，顶级超级预测者预计2026年底前最长METR 80%任务时间范围可达3-4小时。然而5月底，Anthropic的Claude Mythos模型在METR基准预览中即以80%成功率达到3小时6分钟，直接落在专家和超级预测者对2026年底的中位数预测范围内（3-4小时）。此前基线为1.5小时。此次突破表明AI能力进展速度远超预期。

## 正文

In early May， the best superforecasters predicted that， by the end of the year， the longest METR 80% task horizons would reach 3-4 hours.

In late May， Claude Mythos achieved that number.

### 引用推文

> Forecasting Research Institute：We also asked forecasters to predict the longest 80% success time horizon achieved by the end of 2026. All three groups had medians between 3 and 4 hours, up fr...