François Chollet@fchollet · XAI 摘要
Francois Chollet 指出，许多人误以为只要技术有效、有市场、能盈利甚至需求无限，就不可能是泡沫。实际上，泡沫的定义是投资者过度乐观地押注后恐慌，与技术的实际价值无关。无论技术是像元宇宙那样的噱头，还是像互联网或铁路这样的变革性发明，都可能产生泡沫。泡沫破裂并不意味着技术失败或用户停止使用，只是投资资金枯竭、估值崩溃——就像2000年互联网泡沫并未阻止互联网普及。
Some considerations that many folks seem not to get：
- It can be a bubble even if the tech works. （For instance， if the tech doesn't have a high-demand use case.）
- It can be a bubble even if the tech works and has strong product-market fit. （For instance， if the tech cannot be economically viable.）
- It can be a bubble even if the tech works， has strong product-market fit， and has a path to eventual economic viability. （For instance， if profitability takes too long to achieve or makes margin/competition assumptions that fail to materialize.）
- It can be a bubble even if the tech works， has strong product-market fit， and is currently highly profitable. （For instance， if demand has a hard ceiling and growth stops once the ceiling is reached.）