大语言模型对自己的回答过度自信
阅读原文· arxiv.org指令微调使大语言模型校准性本就低于基座模型,而聊天模板通过“所有权偏见”进一步加剧偏差:模型对自己的回答比用户给出的相同答案显著更自信。在6个开源权重LLM、3个基准和3种置信度获取方法上,模型给自己回答分配的置信度最高高出26%。研究者提出简单推理时策略:获取置信度时将模型回答伪装成用户输入,无需重新训练即可将过度自信降低、校准性提升最高26%,缩小了基座与指令微调模型间的差距。
Prior work has shown that instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) are less well calibrated than their base pre-trained counterparts. However, little is known about the frequently used chat template's effect on the calibration of conversational LLMs. In this work, we investigate the mechanisms driving this miscalibration by decoupling the effects of the post-training algorithm and the chat format. We find that, while instruction tuning fundamentally harms calibration, the chat template aggravates the issue through an "ownership bias" -- models are significantly more confident in their own answers than in identical answers provided by a user. Extensive experiments across six recent open-weight LLMs, three benchmarks, and three confidence elicitation methods show that models assign up to 26% higher confidence to their own responses. Leveraging this insight, we propose a simple inference-time strategy: framing the model's answer as user input during confidence elicitation. This approach significantly reduces overconfidence and improves calibration by up to 26% without the need for retraining, narrowing the gap between base and instruction-tuned models.