从 AGI 到 ASI
阅读原文· arxiv.org过去十年,人类级通用人工智能从遥远猜测变为多家机构的下个十年目标。这份报告探讨后AGI世界中AI沿机器智能连续体的发展,重点是从人类级AGI到通用超智能(ASI)的过渡。ASI被定义为比人类大型组织更智能的系统。报告描述了四条潜在路径:扩展AGI、AI范式转变、递归改进及大规模多智能体集体涌现,并分析了路径上的摩擦与瓶颈。由于预测ASI进展存在巨大不确定性,不能排除AI发展持续加速的可能,社会面临的或是一系列由AI驱动的科技连锁变革,需全球跨学科努力应对。
Over the last decade, building human-level artificial general intelligence has moved from far-fetched speculation to being a concrete next-decade target for many of the largest AI organisations. Achieving this goal would have profound and far-reaching impacts on human society, which raises many complex questions for the decade ahead. This report investigates how AI itself might continue to develop in a post-AGI world along the continuum of machine intelligence. The endpoint of this continuum, Universal AI, is theoretically well understood, which provides some formal grounding for the main focus of this report: the transition from human-level AGI to artificial general superintelligence, which, intuitively, can be understood as a system that is more intelligent and cognitively capable than large organisations of humans. After characterizing ASI, the report discusses four potential pathways from AGI to ASI: scaling AGI, AI paradigm shifts, recursive improvement, and ASI emerging from large-scale multi-agent collectives. The report then discusses possible frictions and bottlenecks along these pathways. Determining whether the impact of these frictions will be negligible or substantial raises a number of concrete open research questions. Due to large uncertainties for predicting ASI progress, it cannot be ruled out that AI progress might continue to accelerate over the next years. This could imply that the image of a single transformative step change, caused by the introduction of human-level AGI into our society, could be inaccurate. More apt might be the prospect of a series of transformative societal changes caused by AI-enabled progress and breakthroughs across many areas of science and technology. Preparing for this prospect requires a massively interdisciplinary endeavour of global scope and interest.