# 高盛：AI竞赛形成5.3万亿美元资本支出周期，债务风险或超互联网泡沫

- 来源：Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai)
- 发布时间：2026-06-20 14:03
- AIHOT 分数：64
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmqlz547z00mnslhyvf5vfo1b
- 原文链接：https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2068213062218486135

## AI 摘要

高盛指出，AI竞赛已形成5.3万亿美元资本支出周期（覆盖2025–2030年超大规模云商AI及数据中心投入）。基础设施融资正面临困境：少数巨头无法无限发债，数据中心组合复杂（土地、电力、网络、冷却、服务器），融资分散于多种渠道。AI资本支出估算增速已快于实际建设，瓶颈或从模型需求转向融资能力、电力与项目执行。NYU教授Damodaran对比互联网泡沫：前者几乎无资本支出、靠股权融资，损失限于股东；AI泡沫资本支出巨大且大量依赖债务（私人资本而非银行），一旦调整，违约将外溢至全社会，痛苦程度远超股价暴跌。

## 正文

Goldman Sachs is now saying the AI race has become a $5.3T capital-spending cycle.

with that figure covering expected hyperscaler spending on AI and data centers from 2025 through 2030.

AI infrastructure is starting to strain normal financing channels， because the same few hyperscalers cannot endlessly push debt into public bond markets without investors worrying about issuer concentration.

A data center is not one asset， because it combines land， power access， network links， buildings， cooling， and AI servers， so the financing naturally spills across infrastructure funds， real estate funds， private credit， and corporate bonds.

Goldman signals that AI capex estimates are rising faster than actual data center construction， which means the bottleneck may shift from model demand to financing capacity， power availability， and project execution.

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