# 热力学智能度量：将智能定义为使罕见有效未来更可能发生的能力

- 来源：Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai)
- 发布时间：2026-06-24 09:32
- AIHOT 分数：49
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmqreyafm0jf2slp55sy0a5tm
- 原文链接：https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2069594355816702017

## AI 摘要

该论文提出“热力学智能”概念，将智能定义为通过信息与控制显著提高罕见有效结果概率的能力。现有评测仅关注任务成功率，而论文指出大脑、大语言模型、控制器等智能体的共同点：系统将自身纳入世界模型，并基于模型选择行动以改变未来概率。有效未来需满足在被动行为下罕见且仍有效。作者提出“罕见有效提升”度量，衡量系统比被动基线更频繁产生此类未来的倍数。高提升取决于系统能否准确识别罕见有效未来。核心论点：智能是物理层面的概率转移过程，而非测试分数或类人行为标签。

## 正文

This paper argues that intelligence is the ability to make rare but valid futures more likely.

So an intelligent system is said to be "thermodynamically intelligent" when it uses information and control to make a rare but valid outcome much more likely

Most existing intelligence measures judge task success， but they do not explain what brains， LLMs， controllers， and physical information engines have in common.

The paper's answer is that an intelligent system models the world with itself inside it， then uses that model to choose actions that change what futures become likely.

A future counts only if it is rare under normal passive behavior and still valid， so random strange outcomes do not get counted as intelligence.

The authors turn this into a measure called rare-valid lift， which asks how much more often a system produces those unlikely but acceptable futures than a passive baseline would.

They show that high lift is impossible unless the system can accurately spot the rare valid futures， and high spotting accuracy can nearly produce high lift when the system can act well.

The main point is that intelligence becomes a physical probability-shifting process， not just a score on tests or a label for human-like behavior.

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Link - arxiv. org/abs/2606.20231

Title： "Thermodynamic Measure of Intelligence"