Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · X高盛研究预测，到2030年AI智能体token使用量将增长24倍。单个智能体任务可能消耗正常回答10倍、50倍甚至更多token。乐观情景下月token使用量可达120 quadrillion，推理成本每年下降60%-70%。Uber和Microsoft已开始重新考虑昂贵的智能体使用。Microsoft本月撤销开发者对Claude Code的访问权限，计划6月30日前迁移至自研Copilot CLI工具，此举被解读为降低成本。
Goldman Sachs Research： "Token use by AI agents is expected to multiply 24 times by 2030"
AI agents are now creating the first serious cost test for the AI boom. As was reported this week， Uber and Microsoft are already rethinking expensive agent usage.
A chatbot may answer once， but an agent plans， calls tools， checks results， edits mistakes， and repeats the loop.
That loop can make one user request consume 10x， 50x， or even far more tokens than a normal answer.
Goldman's bullish case is that monthly token use could reach 120 quadrillion by 2030， while inference cost per token keeps falling 60%-70% per year.
The fight is now between agent productivity and token waste.