# Anthropic 雇佣经济学家 Chad Jones，探讨 AI 生存风险

- 来源：Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai)
- 发布时间：2026-06-26 01:47
- AIHOT 分数：53
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmqtsw2gz06k8sl0exves0q1i
- 原文链接：https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2070202157476028901

## AI 摘要

Anthropic 本周雇佣了斯坦福经济学家 Chad Jones。Jones 的 NBER 论文认为，先进 AI 是加速发明与存在风险之间的权衡——更智能的系统可能加速研究，但也可能造成经济无法修复的损失。其结论使用对数效用假设：若每年有 1% 的灭绝风险持续 40 年，生存概率约为 67%。

## 正文

FT published a piece "Anthropic has hired an economist with . . . interesting views on human survival"

Stanford economist Chad Jones joined Antropic this week.

Jones's NBER paper showed advanced AI as a bargain between faster invention and existential risk， where smarter systems may speed research but may also create losses no economy can repair.

His most jarring result uses log utility， an economics assumption that each extra gain helps less than the last， and says a 1% annual extinction risk for 40 years leaves about a 67% survival chance.