将行为预测作为可学习任务:训练行为预测器绕过解释步骤
阅读原文· arxiv.org针对大推理模型(LRM),提出绕过传统解释步骤的方法:将行为预测视为可学习任务,训练Behavior Forecaster基于单条推理轨迹直接做出预测(如重复答案概率、移除部分输入后答案的变化)。训练数据通过查询LRM自动生成,无需人工标注,推理仅需单次前向传播。在三个推理数据集上,该预测器表现优于作为朴素读者读取相同轨迹的GPT-5.4和Claude Opus-4.6,且推理成本远低于它们。端到端微调骨干网络并从目标LRM初始化是实现高性能的必要条件。
Trust in an AI system is often anchored by explanations of how it works, which one then uses to forecast its behavior on new inputs. For large reasoning models (LRMs), this conventional route is particularly difficult to follow: explanation methods for single token generations do not naturally generalize to long trajectories, and the trajectories themselves are often not faithful when read as natural language. We propose an alternative that bypasses the explanation step: treat behavior forecasting as a learnable task and train Behavior Forecasters that operates on a single reasoning trajectory to make the same forecasts one would typically seek from an explanation. The forecaster's training data is obtained by querying the LRM with no human annotation, and its inference is done in a single forward pass. We instantiate this approach on two tasks: how likely the LRM is to repeat its answer on re-runs, and how removing parts of the input changes its answer. We evaluate this approach on both tasks across three diverse reasoning datasets and find that trained Behavior Forecasters are more accurate than GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus-4.6 reading the same trajectories as naive readers, at a small fraction of their inference cost. We find that fine-tuning the backbone end-to-end and initializing it from the target LRM are each necessary for strong performance. These results show that the reasoning trajectory carries information about the LRM's future behavior that goes beyond what naive reading conveys.