# 摩根士丹利大幅上调中国类人机器人预测：2025年出货5万台，2030年达44.6万

- 来源：Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai)
- 发布时间：2026-06-27 01:30
- AIHOT 分数：65
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmqv8crux0ayasl80grtqf4qz
- 原文链接：https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2070560220913324192

## AI 摘要

摩根士丹利将2025年中国类人机器人出货量预测上调至5万台，较1月预测几乎翻倍；2030年年度出货量预计达44.6万台（此前26.2万），其中全尺寸机器人占比从2025年的30%升至2028年的70%。中国优势在于规模：小鹏、宇树、优必选、银河通用等厂商可在工厂、仓库、医院等场景采集真实任务数据。小鹏计划于2026年底量产其Iron机器人，宇树称2025年已交付超5500台类人机器人。

## 正文

Morgan Stanley now expects China to ship 50，000 humanoid robots this year， almost 2x its January forecast.

China's edge is scale， because firms such as Xpeng， Unitree， UBTech， and Galbot can place robots inside factories， showrooms， warehouses， hospitals， and state-backed training sites to collect real task data.

Morgan Stanley now sees China reaching 446，000 annual shipments by 2030， up from 262，000， with full-sized humanoids rising from 30% of shipments this year to 70% in 2028.

Xpeng plans to mass-produce its Iron robot by end-2026 and Unitree says it shipped more than 5，500 humanoids in 2025.

---

scmp. com/tech/article/3358210/morgan-stanley-raises-china-humanoid-robot-shipment-forecast-50000-units