Chubby♨️@kimmonismus

2026-06-28 15:51·4天前

AI 摘要

Kim认为美国政府基于自身安全评估（担忧模型被中国通过蒸馏获取）而非CEO言论决定禁运Fable 5和GPT-5.6。她批评Anthropic沟通失误（拒配合国防部、电话不畅通），并赞同模型被禁源于其真实破坏性能力，Anthropic应主动报告风险而非让Amazon先行披露。

Dario Amodei's "fearmongering" was not the reason Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 were embargoed. That is a mistaken assumption.

I fully agree with @deredleritt3r here， and he has provided a good analysis. I would like to briefly explain why I believe he is right， and why it is not Dario Amodei's fault， nor the result of so-called fear-mongering， that the models are now being banned.

There are certainly things one can criticize Dario Amodei for， and things that went badly or were handled incorrectly， for example the way he dealt with the U.S. authorities （Remember February， when Anthropic refused to cooperate with the U.S. Department of Defense）. Based on all the reports that circulated， the response to the U.S. government's demand to revise the models and security risks was insufficient. It also appears that phone availability was poor. In a situation involving national security and a technology that could endanger the security and sovereignty of the nation， that is obviously not a manageable state of affairs， and it is certainly something that can be criticized.

But it is absurd to believe that the U.S. government， which has a staff of advisers and cybersecurity experts， an intelligence service that deals with this technology （NSA）， and scientists of its own， would simply decide to ban an entire technology and thereby impose enormous obstacles on the stock market and investors （！） merely because a CEO was supposedly engaging in fear-mongering. The U.S. government is surely aware of the damage it is causing with the embargo， and factors that into its calculation when weighing it against national security. That is the reason.

Under no circumstances can I imagine that the U.S. government would simply accept mere statements and use them as the basis for concluding that a CEO is afraid， then make such serious and financially consequential decisions without examining the matter itself. Anyone who believes that underestimates the strength， reach， and intelligence of the government of the world's largest nation. Again， the way Anthropic dealt with the U.S. government is certainly open to criticism， based on everything we were able to read afterward. But to believe that fear-mongering alone is enough to prompt the U.S. government not only to halt the technology （in the race against China for investment， R&D， and the entire future of their nations， mind you）， but also to impose requirements on investment that are so enormous that even the Manhattan Project seems small by comparison， is an assumption that is almost certainly wrong.

The reason for the embargo is most likely that there are concerns that this technology could fall into the hands of the biggest competitor， namely China. There is concern that China could manage to use this technology for its own purposes， for example through distillation or other means. Under no circumstances do they want， for example， Fable 5 to be used to launch cyberattacks against the United States， uncover secrets， or cause major damage.

Anthropic 大佬观点安全/对齐政策/监管

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Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · X

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2026-06-28 15:51·4天前

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AI 摘要

Dario Amodei's "fearmongering" was not the reason Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 were embargoed. That is a mistaken assumption.