# AA-Briefcase评分显示AI智能指数级加速，开源差距约半年

- 来源：Chubby♨️ (@kimmonismus)
- 发布时间：2026-06-29 16:06
- AIHOT 分数：50
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmqyy3dqq00c2slxslijapf5y
- 原文链接：https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/2071505555873464393

## AI 摘要

基于Artificial Analysis的AA-Briefcase评分（模拟多周复杂咨询任务），@emollick 绘制前沿曲线发现：闭源AI模型发展呈指数级增长且加速，开源模型（尤其中国）仍落后约半年。但乐观预测，年底前可能出现“神话级”开源变体。

## 正文

.@emollick has used data from Artificial Analysis to show how the development of intelligence compares with open source.

Two interesting points：

-The development is still unquestionably exponential. There is no doubt about that. AI is not just getting better， it is getting better faster and faster. This is a truth that all of us probably already notice when using AI.

-The gap to open source remains fairly constant. Chinese models in particular are still about half a year behind closed source. But that also means that Mythos-class models as open-source variants are genuinely realistic toward the end of the year.

A very interesting graph.

### 引用推文

> Ethan Mollick：I took the new AA-Briefcase scores from @ArtificialAnlys (basically having the AI do multi-week consulting gigs with a lot of complexity) and graphed the fronti...