# SemiAnalysis：超大规模内存支出占比2026年超30%

- 来源：SemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_)
- 发布时间：2026-07-04 01:01
- AIHOT 分数：56
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmr56z0zy006mslbrwhuub3pw
- 原文链接：https://x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2073089807182451100

## AI 摘要

SemiAnalysis 发推指出，内存占超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）资本支出的份额引发热议，尤其是美光财报后。早前他们2月提出 30% 的预测时遭客户反驳（认为仅占服务器 BOM 的十几%）。5月，因内存涨价超预期，他们更新预测：结合 DRAM、NAND 和 HBM，英伟达系统中内存支出在 2026 年底超 30%，2027 年超过 40%。预计未来数月市场将更好理解这一趋势。

## 正文

Memory as a share of Hyperscaler CapEx has drawn a lot of chatter, especially after MU earnings last week. Some market participants are shocked at how high it could be next year.

We published our initial view in late February, and many clients pushed back on our 30% number: "Memory is in the teens as a share of a server BOM. How could overall CapEx be that high?"

In May, after pricing rose even faster than expected, we responded directly: combine DRAM, NAND, and HBM, and memory spend in an Nvidia system clears 30% by YE26 and moves above 40% in CY27.

We expect this dynamic to be better understood in the coming months.