# UBS上调DRAM/NAND预测：AI资本开支推动涨价周期

- 来源：Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai)
- 发布时间：2026-07-04 04:50
- AIHOT 分数：60
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmr5fh8xw01xmslc7pxq0zv7l
- 原文链接：https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2073147281000591594

## AI 摘要

AI资本开支周期推动内存进入比预期更激进的价格上行周期。UBS预计DRAM价格Q3环比上涨32%、Q4上涨18%，NAND价格Q3上涨30%、Q4上涨12%。高带宽内存、DRAM和NAND均被同一需求浪潮拉动。UBS还认为DRAM市场供应不足将持续至至少2028年，因为2027年需求增速远超供应增长。

## 正文

The AI capex cycle is now pushing memory into a much more aggressive pricing upcycle than expected.

UBS now expects DRAM prices to rise 32% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 and 18% in Q4, while NAND prices are expected to rise 30% in Q3 and 12% in Q4.

AI infrastructure is eating memory supply faster than the industry can add it. High Bandwidth Memory, DRAM, and NAND are all getting pulled into the same demand wave. UBS also sees the DRAM market staying undersupplied until at least 2028, because demand growth in 2027 is expected to be far above supply growth.

### 引用推文

> Jukan @ ICML：UBS raises its DRAM and NAND price forecasts DRAM prices are now expected to rise 32% QoQ in Q3 and 18% QoQ in Q4. NAND prices are expected to rise 30% QoQ in Q...