Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · XAI 摘要
Rohan Paul 引用斯坦福报告指出，GPT-3.5 级别推理成本在不到两年内已下降 280 倍。他认为智能领域将出现杰文斯悖论：更便宜的推理会创造远超当前的需求。当 Opus 4.8 级别的开源模型价格再降 4 倍时，多智能体系统将无处不在。他还引用预测称，6 个月内将出现质量接近 fable 5 但价格便宜 3-4 倍的模型，12 个月内 Opus 4.8 级别模型可在本地设备运行，发生概率超 50%。
100% agree.
That famous Stanford report already found GPT-3.5-level inference costs has already fallen 280X in under 2 years.
And so we will see Jevons paradox for intelligence： cheaper inference will create far more demand.
Multi-agent systems will be everywhere when we have Opus 4.8 class open-source model at 4X cheaper prices.