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Demis Hassabis 罕见乐观发文:AGI 数年可至,人类站在奇点山脚

2026-07-14 17:48· 33天前
AI 导读

DeepMind 联合创始人、2024 年诺贝尔化学奖得主 Demis Hassabis 罕见发表乐观长文,称 AGI 可能仅需数年即可实现,人类正站在奇点山脚。他将 AGI 的影响比作电或火的发现,冲击力将是工业革命的 10 倍、速度也是 10 倍。Hassabis 过去常纠正激进时间线,是行业内的“指定怀疑者”。他警告风险在网络安全领域已真实存在,生物与核威胁可能紧随其后,控制自我改进的智能体系统是核心问题。他呼吁建立监管基础设施,以应对未来数年内可能出现的局面。

Demis Hassabis has written a piece about AGI, and rarely has he sounded so optimistic. Read his article; the golden future of science lies ahead of us; we are on the threshold of the singularity:

"AGI cannot be compared to standard technological breakthroughs, not even ones as consequential as the internet or mobile - it is much more akin to the discovery of electricity or fire.

The magnitude of this technology's impact will be unprecedented, perhaps 10x of the Industrial Revolution at 10x the speed."

He won the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for AlphaFold. He has spent years as the industry's designated sceptic, correcting inflated timelines and pushing back on the loudest AGI claims. He does not do hype. So when he writes that AGI is probably only a few short years away and that we are standing in the foothills of the singularity, that lands differently than the same sentence from a founder raising a round.

His case: AGI is closer to the discovery of electricity or fire than to the internet, with an impact he puts at 10x the Industrial Revolution at 10x the speed. The risks are already real in cybersecurity, with bio and nuclear threats plausibly next, and control over agentic, self-improving systems as the problem on the horizon. The cause he identifies is structural. A commercial and geopolitical race is pushing capability past our understanding of it. Thats the danger.

However: A Nobel laureate who built his career on peer review rather than demos is now asking for regulatory infrastructure he expects to need within a few years.

Incredible times ahead.

Demis Hassabishttp://x.com/i/article/2076946210397552640

来源:Chubby♨️ · x.com

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Demis Hassabis 罕见乐观发文:AGI 数年可至,人类站在奇点山脚

Chubby♨️ · @kimmonismus · X·2026-07-14 17:48·33天前
AI 导读

DeepMind 联合创始人、2024 年诺贝尔化学奖得主 Demis Hassabis 罕见发表乐观长文,称 AGI 可能仅需数年即可实现,人类正站在奇点山脚。他将 AGI 的影响比作电或火的发现,冲击力将是工业革命的 10 倍、速度也是 10 倍。Hassabis 过去常纠正激进时间线,是行业内的“指定怀疑者”。他警告风险在网络安全领域已真实存在,生物与核威胁可能紧随其后,控制自我改进的智能体系统是核心问题。他呼吁建立监管基础设施,以应对未来数年内可能出现的局面。

Demis Hassabis has written a piece about AGI, and rarely has he sounded so optimistic. Read his article; the golden future of science lies ahead of us; we are on the threshold of the singularity:

"AGI cannot be compared to standard technological breakthroughs, not even ones as consequential as the internet or mobile - it is much more akin to the discovery of electricity or fire.

The magnitude of this technology's impact will be unprecedented, perhaps 10x of the Industrial Revolution at 10x the speed."

He won the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for AlphaFold. He has spent years as the industry's designated sceptic, correcting inflated timelines and pushing back on the loudest AGI claims. He does not do hype. So when he writes that AGI is probably only a few short years away and that we are standing in the foothills of the singularity, that lands differently than the same sentence from a founder raising a round.

His case: AGI is closer to the discovery of electricity or fire than to the internet, with an impact he puts at 10x the Industrial Revolution at 10x the speed. The risks are already real in cybersecurity, with bio and nuclear threats plausibly next, and control over agentic, self-improving systems as the problem on the horizon. The cause he identifies is structural. A commercial and geopolitical race is pushing capability past our understanding of it. Thats the danger.

However: A Nobel laureate who built his career on peer review rather than demos is now asking for regulatory infrastructure he expects to need within a few years.

Incredible times ahead.

Demis Hassabishttp://x.com/i/article/2076946210397552640

来源:Chubby♨️· x.com

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