# Stability AI 联合创始人预测 Kimi K3 推理成本将下降 10-50 倍

- 来源：Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai)
- 发布时间：2026-07-21 09:59
- AIHOT 分数：40
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmru104jl4eswbihz6cd31y6e
- 原文链接：https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2079385730410054096

## AI 摘要

Stability AI 联合创始人 Emad Mostaque 预测，Kimi K3 的推理成本将在未来几个月内下降 10 至 50 倍。当前高成本源于基础设施不成熟，一旦权重开放，Fireworks（估值 170 亿美元）等美国推理提供商将围绕该模型进行优化。目前 Kimi K3 处理相同任务消耗的 token 数是 GPT-5.6 的两倍，但优化后成本将快速追平。

## 正文

Great explanation by Emad Mostaque， co-founder of Stability AI.

"We'll see the cost of Kimi K3 drop by 10 to 50 times， I think， over the next few months as it gets optimized. "

Basically Kimi K3's current inference cost is quite high， but that price reflects immature infrastructure， not a permanent technical limit. And that gap will not last long.

US-based specialized infrastructure companies will optimize kernels， routing， quantization， batching， memory use， and serving systems around those models once the Kimi K3 weights are available.

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"Right now， it uses twice the number of tokens for the same task compared with GPT-5.6.

Again， we're going to see that cost drop because everyone and their dog is going to optimize the crap out of this.

Fireworks has just raised funding at a $17 billion valuation， while others， such as Modal and Baseten， are valued at $10 billion.

These are inference providers for open-source models. They've all raised around a billion dollars， which they're now going to spend on optimizing the Chinese model， making it more efficient， and running it.

American labs that handle the inference side of things are going to optimize the crap out of this. Therefore， we will see it catch up."

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From "Peter H. Diamandis" YouTube channel， （full video link in comment）