# 马斯克自称未来预测准确率高但常被忽视

- 来源：DogeDesigner (@cb_doge)
- 发布时间：2026-07-24 06:51
- AIHOT 分数：0
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmry404ng0079rozr3oxqf0mt
- 原文链接：https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2080425711664505122

## AI 摘要

马斯克称自己预测未来的“击球率”很高，虽非完美但优于多数人。他指出这种能力带来了“卡珊德拉效应”——人们不相信他看似反直觉的预测。他补充说，尽管时间点可能不准，但绝大多数预测最终会成真。

## 正文

ELON MUSK： "I'm very good at predicting the future. I'm not perfect， but I'm very good at predicting the future. My batting average is very high for a human. But this does have somewhat of a Cassandra effect， where people don't believe that what I'm saying is likely to be true， because I can see into the future， not perfectly， but with a higher probability of success than most people， including things that people believe to be counterintuitive.

Again， I'm not saying I'm always right. I certainly am not， but my batting average is very good. This does have a Cassandra effect， where people don't realize that what I'm saying will come to pass. Maybe not exactly in the timing that I thought， but it will come to pass. History will write the verdict， but I think you will see that very little of what I've said is inaccurate. A supermajority of what I've said is very accurate and will come to pass unless there is some change in direction."