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Aschenbrenner 的 AI 论点或许正确，但时机与杠杆错了

2026-07-31 18:49· 15分钟前· Maximilian Schreiner
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AI 摘要

Leopold Aschenbrenner 的 AI 对冲基金 Situational Awareness 因重亏被迫将几乎全部公开交易股票组合卖给 Citadel。该基金曾以杠杆押注 AI 基础设施，资产峰值达 450 亿美元，但在上半年回报 439% 后数日内，因 AI 股下跌和银行追加保证金而遭紧急抛售。Aschenbrenner 仍保留其在 Anthropic 等公司的私人持股。

原文 · 未翻译
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Key Points

  • Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI hedge fund Situational Awareness had to sell nearly its entire publicly traded stock portfolio to Citadel after heavy losses.
  • Aschenbrenner had used borrowed money to bet on AI infrastructure. Falling AI stocks and margin calls from banks forced the emergency sell-off of the fund, which had peaked at $45 billion in assets.
  • The crash came just days after a reported 439 percent return for the first half of the year and right before the market recovered. Aschenbrenner is keeping his private holdings in companies like Anthropic.

Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI hedge fund Situational Awareness had to sell nearly its entire publicly traded stock portfolio to Ken Griffin's firm Citadel after racking up steep losses.

Aschenbrenner, now in his mid-20s and with no prior trading experience, started working for the FTX Future Fund in February 2022. The fund was the philanthropic arm of Sam Bankman-Fried's crypto exchange, which later collapsed. Aschenbrenner left before the implosion. In 2023, he joined OpenAI's "Superalignment" team but was fired in April 2024 over an alleged information leak. Aschenbrenner disputed that account, saying he'd only shared a largely harmless document with three outside researchers and had previously flagged security gaps at OpenAI.

That same year, Aschenbrenner gained a large following with his essay "Situational Awareness," which predicted rapid AI growth. In 2024, he launched the hedge fund by the same name. According to CNBC, it peaked at $45 billion in assets but had just eight employees, four of them on the investment side.

From 439 percent returns to a fire sale in days

As recently as last Friday, Aschenbrenner reported a 439 percent return for the first half of the year, according to the FT, and called on investors to put in fresh capital by August 1. Days later, falling AI stocks like SK Hynix and margin calls from banks forced the heavily leveraged fund into an emergency sell-off. His bet against software stocks like Adobe also backfired. Aschenbrenner is keeping his private holdings, including a stake in Anthropic.

Aschenbrenner's thesis was that increasingly powerful AI would drive massive buildouts of chips, memory, data centers, and power infrastructure. That buildout is happening. But the enormous spending and rising financing costs made investors question returns, triggering a sell-off. What did him in was the leverage. Borrowed money amplified the losses and forced sales right before some of the stocks bounced back.

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Aschenbrenner 的 AI 论点或许正确，但时机与杠杆错了

The Decoder：AI News（RSS）·2026-07-31 18:49·15分钟前·Maximilian Schreiner
阅读原文· the-decoder.com
AI 摘要

Leopold Aschenbrenner 的 AI 对冲基金 Situational Awareness 因重亏被迫将几乎全部公开交易股票组合卖给 Citadel。该基金曾以杠杆押注 AI 基础设施，资产峰值达 450 亿美元，但在上半年回报 439% 后数日内，因 AI 股下跌和银行追加保证金而遭紧急抛售。Aschenbrenner 仍保留其在 Anthropic 等公司的私人持股。

原文 · 保持原样，未翻译
Image description

Key Points

  • Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI hedge fund Situational Awareness had to sell nearly its entire publicly traded stock portfolio to Citadel after heavy losses.
  • Aschenbrenner had used borrowed money to bet on AI infrastructure. Falling AI stocks and margin calls from banks forced the emergency sell-off of the fund, which had peaked at $45 billion in assets.
  • The crash came just days after a reported 439 percent return for the first half of the year and right before the market recovered. Aschenbrenner is keeping his private holdings in companies like Anthropic.

Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI hedge fund Situational Awareness had to sell nearly its entire publicly traded stock portfolio to Ken Griffin's firm Citadel after racking up steep losses.

Aschenbrenner, now in his mid-20s and with no prior trading experience, started working for the FTX Future Fund in February 2022. The fund was the philanthropic arm of Sam Bankman-Fried's crypto exchange, which later collapsed. Aschenbrenner left before the implosion. In 2023, he joined OpenAI's "Superalignment" team but was fired in April 2024 over an alleged information leak. Aschenbrenner disputed that account, saying he'd only shared a largely harmless document with three outside researchers and had previously flagged security gaps at OpenAI.

That same year, Aschenbrenner gained a large following with his essay "Situational Awareness," which predicted rapid AI growth. In 2024, he launched the hedge fund by the same name. According to CNBC, it peaked at $45 billion in assets but had just eight employees, four of them on the investment side.

From 439 percent returns to a fire sale in days

As recently as last Friday, Aschenbrenner reported a 439 percent return for the first half of the year, according to the FT, and called on investors to put in fresh capital by August 1. Days later, falling AI stocks like SK Hynix and margin calls from banks forced the heavily leveraged fund into an emergency sell-off. His bet against software stocks like Adobe also backfired. Aschenbrenner is keeping his private holdings, including a stake in Anthropic.

Aschenbrenner's thesis was that increasingly powerful AI would drive massive buildouts of chips, memory, data centers, and power infrastructure. That buildout is happening. But the enormous spending and rising financing costs made investors question returns, triggering a sell-off. What did him in was the leverage. Borrowed money amplified the losses and forced sales right before some of the stocks bounced back.

AI News Without the Hype – Curated by Humans

Financial Times

CNBC

Wall Street Journal

OpenAI行业动态
阅读原文the-decoder.com