# 哈萨比斯：AGI 或在 2030 年前后到来

- 来源：Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai)
- 发布时间：2026-08-09 16:16
- AIHOT 分数：54
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmslk3c3k05bzroo0al127asj
- 原文链接：https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2086366039693201906

## AI 摘要

Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis 称，我们正站在“奇点”山脚，AGI 可能只需几年、约 2030 年前后（误差一年）即可实现。他认为真正的颠覆不在于 AGI 精确抵达时间，而在于机构适应能力——技术演进速度将远超人类系统的响应能力，若 AGI 按前沿实验室时间表到来，这一滞后将压缩成危险鸿沟。

## 正文

Demis Hassabis:

"Society needs to hear that because we don't have long to prepare for what that means. We are standing in the foothills of the singularity now.

..which is AGI. I believe that we are only a few years away from that, maybe around 2030, plus or minus a year. "

~ Demis Hassabis, Co-Founder and CEO of Google DeepMind

It is going to be enormously profound, I think. The future, in my view, is still to be written. But these next few years are going to be very critical as to which way that will go, and how we collectively want that to look."

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I think the real disruption is not the precise arrival of AGI in 2030, give or take a year, but the ability of institutions to adapt. In a post-AGI world technology will evolve at a pace that outstrips the response capacity of human systems.

Companies still organize work around human bottlenecks. Schools still train people for stable professions. Governments still regulate after the harm is obvious.

If AGI arrives even remotely near the frontier-lab timelines, it will compress that lag into a dangerous gap.

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From "Stanford Graduate School of Business" YouTube channel, (link in comment)