The next few years in SF will be incredible.

Many big lab employees will leave . The idea of sailing into the sunset is temporal and will quickly subside. Inevitably, they will start their own companies and absorb a tremendous amount of venture capital. This will lead to an abundance of innovation.

On the negative side, a lot of this innovation will be in the largely overlapping homogenous areas where their skillets lie. We see this already: many companies doing AI for quant trading, drug discovery, material discovery, robotics, new AI architectures, hardware. Competition in such disciplines will be severe.

Yet on the positive side, never in history could you raise this quantum ($100M+) of risk capital out of the gate and the space of invention that begets is unprecedented. People will take swings that were once not viewed as VC backable businesses. And yes, beyond just buying loads of compute to train models. Moonshot ideas which usually only worked under the comfort of a big company. Instead of 100, there may be 1000 startups dubbed "neolabs".

Many will invest capital of their own. They will all pay top dollar to attract talent. They will poach large swathes of academia out of their labs to help. Many will not find the hunger to succeed and get lazy from their riches. The more successful ones will acquire them if they are colleagues they liked.

The amazing ones will succeed immeasurably. And this will beckon a new renaissance we won't be able to fathom from where we are now.