TinyCast:用计算周期实现概率零样本预测

HuggingFace Daily Papers(社区热门论文)·2026-08-16 08:00·10天前
AI 导读

TinyCast 是一个无注意力机制的零样本预测器,仅用 146,505 个参数即可输出预测分布,其核心思路是在该规模下,上下文的周期结构值得计算而非学习。它比 GIFT-Eval 榜单上所有参数可查的零样本模型都小,在概率准确度上定义了规模-准确度前沿。

HuggingFace Daily Papers(社区热门论文)
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TinyCast:用计算周期实现概率零样本预测

2026-08-16 08:00· 10天前
AI 导读

TinyCast 是一个无注意力机制的零样本预测器,仅用 146,505 个参数即可输出预测分布,其核心思路是在该规模下,上下文的周期结构值得计算而非学习。它比 GIFT-Eval 榜单上所有参数可查的零样本模型都小,在概率准确度上定义了规模-准确度前沿。

We introduce TinyCast, an attention-free zero-shot forecaster that emits a predictive distribution from 146,505 parameters, on the premise that at this size the periodic structure of a context is worth computing rather than learning. A zero-parameter spectral detector supplies the dominant periods, the context is folded on their phase, and a dilated convolutional encoder and a block-autoregressive quantile decoder model the rest. It is smaller than every zero-shot entry on the GIFT-Eval board whose parameter count can be established. On probabilistic accuracy it defines the size-accuracy frontier. Among zero-shot entries declaring no test-data leakage it is the only one below 1.4M parameters that emits a predictive distribution, and every entry scoring better carries at least that budget. On Chronos-ZS and fev-bench every neural model ahead of it carries at least 28 times its parameters. Because the mixing path is convolutions and matrix multiplications only, it exports to static INT8 and forecasts end to end on an embedded device without per-signal fitting.

来源:HuggingFace Daily Papers(社区热门论文)· arxiv.org