# AI 泡沫可能以两种方式崩溃：先是逐渐，然后突然

- 来源：Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）
- 作者：Gary Marcus
- 发布时间：2026-08-24 23:27
- AIHOT 分数：33
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmt7f8tpk249zro738uhr0fpj
- 原文链接：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-ways-it-might-all-fall-apart

## AI 摘要

作者借海明威《太阳照常升起》中“先是逐渐，然后突然”的破产比喻，指出当前 AI 市场终将崩溃，路径有两条且并不互斥：一是心理层面的信心崩塌，二是与未付账单相关的财务现实。作者称自己此前多关注前者，今晨读到一篇详述后者如何展开的文章。

## 正文

Not mutually exclusive

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

“What brought it on?”

“Friends,” said Mike. “I had a lot of friends. False friends. Then I had creditors, too. Probably had more creditors than anybody in England.”

— Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises, 1926, three years before the Great Depression began.

The market is jittery today, with most the big tech stocks down in early trading. I still expect the whole thing to collapse, sooner or later. Maybe not today, but eventually. Maybe suddenly, or maybe as a slow fizzle. Or, as Hemingway put it, first gradually and then suddenly.

One route to collapse is psychological; the other has to do with unpaid bills. The two are by no means mutually exclusive, and certainly overlap. I have tended to focus on the former; this morning I read something fascinating spelling out how the latter might go.

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