Substrates have no slack: 2026 is fully booked, and total lead times run 12 to 14 months across all six suppliers. Larger body sizes (up to 9,000–14,000 mm²) and higher layer counts (up to 20–24L) consume more line time per unit as each new ASIC/GPU platform generation evolves. Under the bottleneck shift, we reiterate our bullish view on ABF substrates supply chain for stronger pricing power and the continued efforts to secure upstream materials. As the lead time now exceeds 12 months, customers increasingly seeking capacity commitments stretching beyond 2029. Crucially, some of the second-tier suppliers have begun auctioning off their available capacity via competitive bidding, a clear indicator of a highly favorable spot-pricing environment and expanding margin outlook for substrate makers. (1/2)🧵
ABF载板2026产能满载,交期拉长至12-14个月
AI 导读
SemiAnalysis指出ABF载板供应链已无余量,2026年产能全部排满,六大供应商总交期长达12-14个月。更大芯片尺寸(9000-14000mm²)与更高层数(20-24L)推高单单位产线工时。交期超12个月促使客户寻求2029年后产能承诺,部分二线供应商已开始竞标出售产能,现货定价环境强劲,载板厂利润率看涨。
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AI 编辑部评分,满分 100ABF载板2026产能满载,交期拉长至12-14个月
SemiAnalysis指出ABF载板供应链已无余量,2026年产能全部排满,六大供应商总交期长达12-14个月。更大芯片尺寸(9000-14000mm²)与更高层数(20-24L)推高单单位产线工时。交期超12个月促使客户寻求2029年后产能承诺,部分二线供应商已开始竞标出售产能,现货定价环境强劲,载板厂利润率看涨。
来源:SemiAnalysis· x.com