# Epoch AI 分析：华为到 2030 年几乎不可能追上 Nvidia

- 来源：Epoch AI (@EpochAIResearch)
- 发布时间：2026-09-05 03:45
- AIHOT 分数：55
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmtndupd804yfrog1jgu3hd1y
- 原文链接：https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/2095961343648211412

## AI 摘要

Epoch AI 分析华为芯片路线图和供应链后估计，2026 年华为将产出不足 Nvidia AI 算力的 4%，到 2030 年几乎不可能追上。若仅依赖国产 HBM，该份额到 2028 年可能降至约 1%（0.4–1.7M H100 等效算力，而 Nvidia 同期估算为 98M）；分析涵盖从 Ascend 950 到 3D 堆叠和国产 HBM 供应。

## 正文

Will Huawei catch up to Nvidia by 2030? Almost certainly not.

We analyzed Huawei’s chip roadmap and supply chain, from the Ascend 950 to its 3D-stacking bet and domestic HBM supply. Our estimate: Huawei will produce less than 4% of Nvidia's AI compute in 2026. Relying on domestic HBM alone, that share could fall to just 1% by 2028. 🧵