当前AI已能生成新型病毒,斯坦福与Arc研究所实验显示语言模型成功设计出包括使用未知蛋白质的活性病毒。Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei预测6-12个月内即使非专业人士也可能具备该能力,而疫苗研发与分发速度远不及病毒传播。AI防御虽可能加速,但不应以文明存亡为赌注。该领域监管严重滞后,大型科技公司沿用烟草行业策略阻碍立法,全球性生物风险窗口期可能短至12-36个月。
AI can now generate novel viruses
WHY THIS MATTERS:
1) Crazy people COULD use AI to make superviruses NOW, but most of them are idiots
2) Dario Amodei thinks in 6-12 months, even idiots may be able to
3) In 6-12 months, the world could shut down. You die. Your family dies.
4) This is a SUPER OBVIOUS risk unless you think AI progress is just going to magically stop soon
5) Maybe it's not 6-12 months, maybe it's 12-36 months, but… so what?? That's barely any time to prepare!
6) Yes, AI could accelerate defense faster. COULD. We shouldn't bet civilization on that.