Dario Amodei predicted last year that AI would eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within years. Unemployment could hit 10-20%. He's since moved closer to the Jevons Paradox， the idea that automation actually creates more demand and more work. Altman said last week he was "pretty wrong" about displacement （see Axios image down below）. Anthropic co-founder Olah， in turn， repeated Dario Amodei's warning to the Pope a few days ago.

Meanwhile Yale's Budget Lab has been tracking the actual US labor market monthly since ChatGPT launched. Every single update： no meaningful shift in occupational mix. No acceleration in job losses for AI-exposed roles （Image 2 below）. Deutsche Bank coined a term for it in January， "AI redundancy washing." Companies blaming AI for layoffs they'd make regardless.