S&P Global views OpenAI as a "key credit risk" for Oracle and has downgraded Oracle's rating from "BBB" to "BBB-," one notch above junk status. Oracle's AI business is burning through far more cash than expected, according to S&P. Capital spending is now projected to hit $95 billion by 2027, up from an earlier $60 billion estimate, while revenue won't materialize for years. OpenAI accounts for roughly half of Oracle's $638 billion in contractual obligations. If OpenAI collapsed, Oracle would be stuck with massive data center capacity it couldn't fill.

S&P says that puts Oracle in a tougher spot than AWS, Google, and Microsoft, which have internal workloads to absorb excess capacity and deeper financial reserves. Still, even their balance sheets would take a serious hit if OpenAI went under. Doubts are building elsewhere too. SoftBank reportedly had to cut a loan backed by OpenAI shares from $10 billion to $6 billion because lenders struggled to value the privately held company. OpenAI has pushed its IPO back to 2027.