Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai · XAI 摘要
据《华尔街日报》报道，OpenAI预测2028年仅AI研究硬件成本就将高达1210亿美元。尽管当年销售额预计翻倍，公司仍将面临850亿美元亏损，预计直到2030年代才能实现整体盈利。竞争对手Anthropic也面临类似的训练成本激增轨迹，只是规模较小。分析指出，两家公司只有在忽略计算支出的情况下才能实现早期盈利，反映出巨额基础设施投入正成为AI行业的普遍挑战。
WSJ： OpenAI forecasting $121B in AI research hardware costs for 2028 by itself.
Even though sales are expected to double that year， losses would still hit $85B， and the company does not expect overall profits until the 2030s.
Anthropic's outlook shows the same steep upward path in training costs， just at a lower scale， and both companies seem to reach early profitability only if compute spending is ignored.
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wsj .com/tech/ai/openai-anthropic-ipo-finances-04b3cfb9